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2015/08/11

[TA DAILY] Money Grab

Who stands to benefit and follow the money?  I have taken this approach to help me 

 
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Larry's Morning Commentary

Money Grab
 

Who stands to benefit and follow the money?  I have taken this approach to help me wade through some very complex issues.  That's what powerful entities do.  Create a lot of confusion and have people scare themselves into making panicked decisions.  You can insert your own conspiracy theory/false flag event here.  But, every conspiracy theory exists because there is some plausibility to them.  If you listen to the now ex-Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, Germany was dead set on booting Greece from the eurozone as soon as Syriza and their anti-austerity platform took power back in January.  It became a very divisive issue across the continent.  People were understandably quite emotional about it and it was a well-chronicled  drama.  But, what if it were a lot more simple?  What if Germany simply saw the Greek crisis as the "false flag" it needed to better themselves?  We turn to the third largest news agency in the world, Agence France-Presse (AFP):

"Germany, which has taken a tough line on Greece, has profited from the country's crisis to the tune of 100 billion euros ($109 billion), according to a new study Monday.

 The sum represents money Germany saved through lower interest payments on funds the government borrowed amid investor "flights to safety", the study said.

 "These savings exceed the costs of the crisis -- even if Greece were to default on its entire debt," said the private, non-profit Leibniz Institute of Economic Research in its paper. "Germany has clearly benefited from the Greek crisis."

 When investors are faced with turmoil, they typically seek a safe haven for their money, and export champion Germany "disproportionately benefited" from that during the debt crisis, it said.

 "Every time financial markets faced negative news on Greece in recent years, interest rates on German government bonds fell, and every time there was good news, they rose."

 Germany, the eurozone's effective paymaster, has demanded fiscal discipline and tough economic reforms in Greece in return for consenting to new aid from international creditors.

 Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has opposed a Greek debt write-down while pointing to his own government's balanced budget.

 The institute, however, argued that the balanced budget was possible in large part only because of Germany's interest savings amid the Greek debt crisis.

 The estimated 100 billion euros Germany had saved since 2010 accounted for over three percent of GDP, said the institute based in the eastern city of Halle.

 Germany's share of the international rescue packages for Greece, including a new loan being negotiated now, came to around 90 billion euros, said the institute.

 "Even if Greece doesn't pay back a single cent, the German public purse has benefited financially from the crisis," said the institute."

This may just have been a very convenient way for Germany to lower their debt load and balance their budget all at the expense of the poor Greeks.  Think this is far-fetched?  One chart says it all:

 

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

 

 
 
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The markets started off the trading with a bang. On a gap and go type of day, the markets jumped out to a huge open. From there, the major averages proceeded to slowly climb higher. Without any fierce selling to slow down the momentum, the DJI kept pushing and closed up 241 points for the session. This move...

 
 
 
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TECHNICAL DATA
ES 2099.00 / 2091.50
POC 12098.00
YM 17,552 / 17,486
NQ 4571.50 / 4559.00
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I really want to stress how important the concept of expected value is. When it comes down to it, our ability to accurately (and honestly) forecast expected value is one of, if not the, most important skills we must have...

 
 
 
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