Saturday, October 3, 2015 | |
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Deep Shale Could Be Four Times the Size of Marcellus There's a quiet land grab going on in West Virginia and Kentucky. It's not for the Marcellus. It's not for the Utica, either.
In fact, you probably haven't heard of this shale play... yet. But the word is going to get out soon. And drillers and investors will scramble to get in on it.
Seismic technology is refining and further determining the size of this play. One early indication is it could be comparable to the Utica and Marcellus.
Another suggests it could be four times bigger than both. No one knows for sure.
However, there are as many as 10 exploration and production companies quietly attempting to learn as much as they can about it. And the land grab has been going on there for almost a year already.
The Potential Gas Committee (PGC) - a group of geoscientists and engineers who provide estimates of the U.S.' potential supply of natural gas - included data from this shale in its most recent report. In its first look at this play, the PGC stated it could hold 137 trillion cubic feet of gas.
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So What's the Play, Dave?
Okay, I've kept you in the dark long enough. The play I'm writing about is the Rogersville Shale.
As you can see from the map, the Rogersville Shale play covers parts of Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Maryland, Pennsylvania and a small part of New York.
It's about 9,000 to 10,000 feet deep in Kentucky and 12,000 to 14,000 feet deep in West Virginia. That's roughly the same depth as parts of the Utica Shale.
The exciting part is the Rogersville is up to 1,100 feet thick in Kentucky. That's 10 to 20 times thicker than the Marcellus.
That's incredible, and it's the reason companies are so excited. It means access to a whole lot more gas.
According to data obtained by Natural Gas Intelligence, a land grab is going on in eastern Kentucky and the southwest part of West Virginia. Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: COG), Cimarex Energy Company (NYSE: XEC), EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) and as many as four other unknown E&P companies are secretly trying to learn more about the Rogersville.
Why the cloak-and-dagger routine? It's a competitive thing.
Once a company knows where the best part (the "fairway") of the play is, it can gobble up drilling rights quickly and cheaply. In fact, both Kentucky and West Virginia allow drillers to keep records a secret for a year or more in some cases.
For instance, Cimarex drilled a vertical test well called the Sylvia Young back in October 2013 in Lawrence County, Kentucky. The state allowed the well to be permitted as a "stratigraphic test."
That kept initial production data a secret until August 20, 2015. And when initial production results were finally released, they were practically a nonevent.
The Sylvia Young well produced about 115,000 cubic feet per day of gas and 19 barrels of oil per day. Not exactly an economical well - but that doesn't mean other wells won't be.
Cabot has drilled a test well into the Rogersville in Putnam County, West Virginia, according to the West Virginia Oil and Natural Gas Association. Cabot is the only company in West Virginia currently drilling the Rogersville... and it's keeping its results under wraps.
But during Cabot's second quarter earnings call, CEO Dan Dinges admitted the company had almost 1 million acres under lease in West Virginia. That tells me Cabot has a lot of faith in the play and is actively acquiring Rogersville acreage.
The bottom line is the Rogersville Shale, and the companies that are poking around in it (pun intended), are worth watching - especially if a test well has strong initial production results. And you can bet that's exactly what I'll be doing as the play continues to unfold.
Good investing,
Dave
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