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2015/11/04

Retail Stocks are Back from the Dead -- Here's How They'll Pay You Double-Digit Gains

Rude Awakening
November 4, 2015
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Retail Stocks are Back from the Dead -- Here's How They'll Pay You Double-Digit Gains

  • The only reason to go to the mall
  • Make your wife—and your wallet—happy this holiday season
  • Plus: Bitcoin storms back

Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg GuenthnerHalloween's over—but there's one group of stocks that's coming back from the dead in a big way.

Gentlemen, get ready to hold your wife's purse and stare mindlessly at your phone while she tries on 27 different sweaters. Retail stocks are back in action!

But I have a new incentive for you to get off the couch and fight for a space in the mall parking garage: You could quickly bank double-digit gains as these comeback stocks take center stage this month...

It's been a long, strange trip for retail brands big and small in 2015. These stocks were unstoppable during the first half of the year. Here's how we described them back in early spring:

Retail stocks have solidified their spot as market leaders. Many key retail companies saw their stocks sprint to new highs despite tough winter conditions that kept people holed up in their homes. We just can't ignore that kind of strength. Powerful trends like this are like locomotives ripping down the tracks at 90 miles an hour. It takes a ton of force and time to stop them…

But by late June the market was starting to top out. Retailers soon gave clear indication that it was time to roll over. Have a look for yourself:

A Speedy Comeback

After several failed attempts to break out to new highs, the S&P Retail Index fall apart. It cratered more than 13% in a matter of weeks.

But that's beginning to change. Once again, we've located another potentially powerful comeback sector. After milling around its August lows for the better part of the past two months, retail stocks are roaring back to life this week. And even during what has been a murky earnings season for most industries, retailers across the board are posting some pretty impressive numbers…

Just yesterday, American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) soared nearly 10% after boosting earnings guidance and announcing a couple of key buyouts in the clothing industry. That's big time, my friend.

And it doesn't hurt that we're dropping into the holiday shopping season. Now, to be clear, I don't really give a damn about holiday shopping numbers. They're just straight-up analyst guesses that are always overhyped by the financial press.

But a little hype at the beginning of a potential end-of-year ramp ain't a bad thing. And it also doesn't hurt that gas is cheap. That means more money in the pockets of anyone who leaves the house on a regular basis. It could also mean more disposable income going to retailers. At least, that's what the media hype-train tells us…

Either way, it's clear that retail stocks are setting up for a big run into 2016. So have fun at the mall!

Sincerely,
Greg Guenthner

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]

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Rude Numbers

When to Buy... When to Sell
89

points were added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday. The 0.5% gain puts the Dow solidly in the green so far this week...

70%

of all stocks trading on major U.S. exchanges are now above their respective 50-day moving averages...

$48.04

buys a barrel of crude today. Oil continues to streak higher this week. It's up another 15 cents this morning...

$1,120

is where you'll find gold futures. Gold is up about $6 in early trading after enduring four straight sessions in the red...

2,106

marks the spot for S&P futures before the morning bell. Stocks are once again prepared to begin the day in the green...


Rude Trends

When to Buy... When to Sell

Remember Bitcoin?

Bitcoin had been completely off our radar for some time after it crashed a couple of years ago. But it's quickly creeping back into the news.

The digital currency is springing back to life this week. Bitcoin is up about 40% since the weekend…

"Barry Silbert, founder & CEO of Digital Currency Group, says there is a lot of demand coming from China," Bloomberg reports. "In fact, due to Chinese demand, the price there has been at a 5 to 8 percent premium for the past two weeks, Silbert said. There's also been growing talk about Bitcoin (and its underlying technology) being useful in professional financial services, which he believes will have a very positive impact."

Interesting…

We'll keep an eye on these developments as the week progresses. After all the hype, maybe its finally time for Bitcoin to find its niche.


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