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2022/02/24

The Writing Is on the Wall 🩸

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AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

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How to Hedge Against the Year's Coming Volatility

Rebecca Barshop | Senior Managing Editor | The Oxford Club

Rebecca Barshop

You heard it here first yesterday...

We're in for a rough year.

Chief Trends Strategist Matthew Carr previously said February would be a telling month for the 2022 stock market.

And now the writing is on the wall...

Historically, the month is a good one for investors. But when the sell-off we see each year in January bleeds over into February, that means there's real trouble ahead. And when the mood sours in February, this leads to an average drop of 4.9% on the Dow.

Well, the blue chip index is currently down 3.93% so far this month, with only a handful of days left.

Unless the markets make a quick about-face, that February indicator will keep flashing red.

But now is not the time to panic. It's the time to prepare.

And that's what we'll discuss today.

Inverted Thinking

It's always nice to have a backup.

An extra set of batteries in case the flashlight goes out...

A spare key for when you lock yourself out of the house...

Or in our case, an emergency plan for a sour market. That is exactly what's staring us in the face for the rest of 2022.

But a correction, a bear market or even a recession doesn't have to hurt so bad - if you know how to properly prepare.

Now, the Dow is seeing red so far this year. That's no secret.

But one corner of the market is seeing green...

Chart - Inverted Thinking
 

The ProShares Short Dow30 (NYSE: DOG) is an example of an inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF).

It mirrors the movements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but in the opposite direction.

An inverse ETF can follow an index, a sector or any group of stocks. And it's a bet against whichever group of stocks it's following.

These kinds of plays allow investors to profit on an index's or a sector's decline without the risk of short selling.

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Inverse funds are a great hedge to use during a down market - like the one we're staring down the barrel of.

When the market is flying high, you can pick up shares of inverse funds for cheap. And then, while everyone is panic-selling, you can take profits on your hedge.

Let's look at some other examples of inverse funds...

Chart - Hottest Corner of the Market
 

These inverse funds have all celebrated gains while their corresponding benchmarks have gone down the toilet to start the year.

The ProShares UltraShort Utilities ETF (NYSE: SDP), ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF (NYSE: SKF), ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (NYSE: DXD), ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS) and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (NYSE: TWM) are just scratching the surface of the opportunity available to you with inverse funds... and what you can gain while everyone else loses.

It's important to remember that these are short-term trades, though.

The markets ultimately move in one direction, and that's up. So a long-term bearish bet would be harmful to your nest egg.

Always Have a Backup Plan

When the markets tank - as they are wont to do on occasion - you don't have to go down with the ship.

A few small investments in inverse funds and other hedges - like precious metals, bonds, Treasurys and certificates of deposit - can be your lifeboat.

Regardless of what's happening in the world, it's a good idea to hold some bearish plays in addition to your bullish ones.

Because when there's already blood in the streets, it's too late to plan ahead.

Good investing,

Rebecca

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