Four biggest lessons for the midterms

The Independent's US politics newsletter

September 29, 2022 View in browser The (climate) elephant in the room As Hurricane Ian pounded the southwestern coast and began moving inland late Wednesday, it left behind a path that has already sent more than two million Floridians into the dark and created a storm surge of at least 12 feet that swamped city streets and cars.   The knocking-at-the-door of a Category 5 storm is just the latest evidence of how the increasing average temperature of the world and rising sea levels will continue to create bigger and more catastrophic storms. For policy makers, these events will likely play an outsized role in their bids for office as more and more people are impacted by these seismic events, and responses to these once-in-a-generation disasters will be under the microscope by a greater share of the electorate as hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts and floods plague the country with increasing frequency.       Eric Garcia's dispatches         Eric Garcia's dispatches   The midterm elections are officially 40 days away. As of right now, most prognosticators guess that Republicans are likely to win back the majority in the House of Representatives while the poor candidate of some Republican nominees for Senate has led some to believe Democrats might hold onto the upper chamber.   Despite the fact that inflation and the economy remain at the top of the mind of most voters, the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade energized Democratic voters in a way that they otherwise would not be when a Democrat occupied the White House with a blue majority in the House and Senate.   Here are four lessons we at Inside Washington learned about the midterm election so far.   Candidate quality matters:  Political scientists, pundits and former candidates themselves often debate the question of whether candidates actually matter. Some argue that voters elect people simply because they want a change.   But 2022 shows that just the right candidate can make a race winnable and poor candidates can hurt. The most recent example comes in Ohio, where Republicans redrew the 9th district with a six-point GOP advantage with hopes of beating Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur. The problem? The Associated Press has reported multiple stories about Republican candidate JR Majewski exaggerating or lying about his military service. That's led to the National Republican Congressional Committee cancelling its ad buys, a sign that they no longer believe he can win.   The inverse is true in Texas, where multiple polls show Beto O'Rourke trailing Republican Governor Greg Abbott. Mr O'Rourke winning in Texas would always be a lift, but his views on guns likely made him radioactive. In addition, former president Donald Trump's preferred candidates have often struggled in competitive races, which leads to the next point.   Trump's endorsement helps but isn't a guarantee:  Almost two years after he left the White House, the former president continues to have an imprint on the GOP. All but two House Republicans who voted to impeach him either lost their primaries or announced they would not seek re-election before facing a bruising loss. As friend of the newsletter Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political report calculated, the former president went 21-5 in the primaries.   And in the primaries where he came up short, it was oftentimes because he backed weak candidates or opposed candidates with unique personal brands. The former was on display when he backed Representative Madison Cawthorn, even as allies of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy used the full force of his political machine to nuke the freshman congressman, as The Washington Post reported this week. Conversely, former Senator David Perdue appeared to coast simply on Mr Trump's endorsement in his primary challenge to Governor Brian Kemp in Georgia while Mr Kemp marshalled every advantage of an incumbent governor.   But winning a primary is only half the battle. Mr Trump's endorsements catapulted Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and JD Vance in Ohio, but as we explained on Wednesday, many Republican voters continue to not trust either of them months after the primaries ended. In addition, in Alaska's special election, he endorsed former governor Sarah Palin, a candidate with tons of baggage whom many voters resented for quitting.   Dobbs changed the election: At this point, it is clear that Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the Supreme Court's decision which overturned Roe v Wade, fundamentally reshaped the calculus of the election. This meant that every Republican candidate now had to go on record about where they stood on abortion. Some Republicans have tried to flip the narrative even trying to paint Democrats as extremists on abortion while they support some restrictions on abortion while Democrats support none. Most recently, Zach Nunn, who is challenging Representative Cindy Axne in Iowa's 3rd district (an Obama-Trump district) has tried this tactic in a new ad (H/T friend of the newsletter Emily Wilkins of Bloomberg Government). But it is unclear whether this line will work for Republicans.   What is clear is that Democrats have outperformed expectations not just in Kansas's referendum, but in special elections like in New York's 19th district, where they held a seat and in Alaska's at-large district where Representative Mary Peltola flipped a seat that had been held by a Republican for almost 50 years.   Democrats keep it (mostly) drama-free: While Republicans engaged in bruising primaries, Democrats mostly chose not to engage in primaries that could compromise their ability to win in November. Josh Shapiro ran unopposed for Pennsylvania's Democratic nomination for governor while Doug Mastriano took advantage of a split field on the Republican side, saddling the GOP with a controversial candidate.   Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Democratic state legislator Jeff Jackson dropped out of the Senate primary, clearing the field for Cheri Beasley and Democrats in Wisconsin coalesced around Mandela Barnes. Even primaries with multiple candidates for competitive seats proved not to be contentious, as was the case when Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman stomped his opponents in the Senate primary in Pennsylvania.   Still, progressives wound up taking some severe losses, as was the case when the more moderate Daniel Goldman took advantage of a split primary field in New York's 10th district. In addition, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's endorsement of Representative Henry Cuellar likely saved him against a Squad-backed challenger. Reading list Alex Woodward: Why Eric Adams is building a migrant 'tent city' in The Bronx   Andrew Buncombe: Is Britain's 'upside-down economic policy' as good for US as it looks?   What else you need to know today After a fourth leak was discovered Thursday morning on the "sabotaged" Nord Stream pipelines lying under the Baltic Sea, speculation that the still unexplained openings could be political in nature only intensified. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said she "cannot rule out" sabotage and though no Western official has officially made the claim, many fingers seem to be pointing in the direction of Moscow. The Kremlin, for its part, dismissed accusations as "predictable, stupid and absurd". Seizing upon this geopolitical quagmire as an opportunity for some good press, Donald Trump took to Truth Social to offer up his services to "head up a group" to help international leaders resolve the matter that he predicted could result in "war". "The entire World is at stake. I will head up group???" he posted. Mr Trump's concerns of nuclear fallout were picked up by Fox News host Tucker Carlson who, not surprisingly, instead took to blaming the purported "sabotage" on the US: "Blow up the Nord Stream pipelines? OK, we've entered a new phase, one in which the United States is directly at war with the largest nuclear power in the world."   The wild and erratic revelations that have been unearthed in New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman's new book, which details behind-the-scenes moments from the Trump administration, continue to shock and dominate the headlines. In the latest round of leaks from the tell-all – due out next week – the veteran White House correspondent reported that Trump once attempted to fire his own kin by tweet, mistook 'diverse' congressional staffers for servers, mocked Ruth Bader Ginsburg's health, pretended to be a journalist in a call to a Democrat and made the call to put Rudy Giuliani in charge of his legal team because no one else would help overturn election. New revelations from a separate tell-all, this time from a staffer who served on the January 6 House select committee investigation, is revealing some of the behind-the-curtain drama of that more than a year-long probe. Based on former Virginia GOP congressman Denver Riggleman's telling, he argues in his tome that the heavily siloed structure of the investigation – born out of a desire to keep leaks from the press – stagnated the staff's ability to gain a wider picture of their work. While he praised the panel's two Republican members, he had a much harsher assessment of one of his former Democratic colleagues: Adam Schiff, who he labelled as "exceptionally political". Elsewhere in the Capitol riot universe, Washington DC police officer Michael Fanone, who was tasered as the violent insurrection unfolded, has said the mother of the rioter involved in the attack called him a "piece of s***" after her son was sentenced this week. Joe Biden's approval rating has, once again, taken a tumble. This time, the US president saw a five-point dip from his high-water mark for the year of 2022, dropping down to a measly 41. Though his ushering through of a series of policy wins – namely the Inflation Reduction and student loan forgiveness – helped him coast to a record high for the year of 46 per cent, it appears voters continue to be plagued by their anxieties about the economy and concerns that Mr Biden isn't capable of righting-the-ship. Not helping his cause of likability is a recent gaffe that saw the president seem to forget about a deceased congresswoman during remarks he made at a hunger conference on Wednesday. "Where's Jackie?" he was heard asking, in reference to Rep Jackie Walorski, who died in a car crash in Indiana in August and was seen as a leader on the issue of childhood hunger. And finally Marjorie Taylor Greene's latest eyebrow raising campaign sent online critics into a flurry after she released a video that showcased the Georgia congresswoman riding in a chopper while she takes aim at invasive hogs scuttling hundreds of feet below her to promote a contest where you can go hunting with the Republican. The 45-second clip begins by showing her strutting through an ominously lit blue farmer's field shouldering a rifle as her eyes slowly begin to turn white and lightning strikes in the background. "Democrats aren't the only ones destroying farmers' ability to put food on the table – we've got wild hogs destroying farmers' fields," she says, seeming to compare the feral species to her adversaries. "So we decided to go hog hunting." Articles available exclusively to subscribers David Taintor, The Independent: A Senate race that tells us so much about modern America OTHER NEWSLETTERS YOU MIGHT LIKE The Race Report Fortnightly, 7am (UK time) Written by Nadine White Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now If you can spare a minute we'd love your feedback on our newsletters. Join the conversation or follow us Please do not reply directly to this email.   You are currently registered to receive The Independent's Inside Washington email. Add us to your safe list of senders . If you do not want to receive The Independent's Inside Washington email, please unsubscribe. 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