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2022/10/31

🤫 Nobody said layoff

Plus: Vine revival | Monday, October 31, 2022
 
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Axios Closer
By Hope King and Nathan Bomey · Oct 31, 2022

Happy Halloween! 🎃

Today's newsletter is 697 words, a 2½-minute read.

🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.8% today, but finished the month of October up 8%.

  • Biggest gainer? Wynn Resorts (+9.6%), following a disclosure that billionaire investor Tilman Fertitta controls a 6% stake in the casino company.
  • Biggest decliner? Global Payments (-8.8%), following quarterly results that largely met expectations.
 
 
1 big thing: Quiet exits
Illustration of a hand holding a melting briefcase.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

Large companies are cluing workers in on their own layoffs, Hope writes.

Driving the news: Ford recently updated one of its "Career Transition" policies to allow underperforming workers who have been with the company for eight+ years to choose to leave and receive a severance package or go through with a performance enhancement plan and risk losing the package.

  • A similar program targeting underperforming employees is taking place inside Facebook parent company Meta, according to Insider.
  • Snapchat's parent company reportedly told managers to put at least 10% of their teams on performance improvement plans ahead of drastic job cuts.

What they're saying: Performance enhancement plans are "pretty rigorous and intense" for both the employee and the manager, Ford spokesperson Marisa Bradley tells Axios.

  • "Before this change that we made earlier this month, you didn't have an option to really opt out — you had to kind of push through it," she says.
  • A Meta spokesperson pointed to CEO Mark Zuckerberg's previous public comments about reducing headcount growth and giving managers tools to shift energy to areas of priority.
  • Snap did not immediately return requests for comment.

Why it matters: Mass layoffs can be bad publicity — signaling to the market and potential recruits that the company is on a negative trajectory, Nicola Bianchi, a professor at Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, told Insider.

  • "Quiet cutbacks may be a way to achieve the same goal without all these negative consequences," Bianchi said.

The big picture: Demand for workers — especially within tech — is cooling off.

  • The industry's woes could be an early indicator of what's to come in the broader labor market, which has so far stayed strong despite other worrying signs in the economy, Axios' Emily Peck wrote this morning.
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2. Charted: Spending power remains
Data: U.S. Federal Reserve; Note: Highest and lowest earners refer to households in the top and bottom income quartiles; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

American consumers are collectively sitting on $1.7 trillion in excess savings — in other words, how much people's cash reserves exceeded what would have typically been stashed away if not for pandemic-related factors, Hope and Axios' Courtenay Brown write.

The intrigue: The picture looks different across income groups, however.

  • The second and third quartiles of earners have retained more than 92% and 85% of their excess savings built up during the time period, respectively, according to research from the Federal Reserve.
  • The bottom and top quartiles of earners have seen larger declines — with each now holding 54% and 69% of what they had built, respectively.

The bottom line: This cash pile helps explain why the consumer is — so far — holding up.

Go deeper.

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3. What's happening

🤝 Blackstone is buying Emerson's climate tech unit at $14 billion valuation. (Axios)

🔢 There's still time to get a ticket before tonight's $1 billion Powerball drawing. (AP)

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27K trees are cut down daily just to make toilet paper
 
 

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4. Vine could rise from the dead

Photo: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

 

Elon Musk has instructed Twitter engineers to work on a Vine reboot that could be ready by year-end, multiple sources tell Axios' Sara Fischer and Dan Primack.

  • Twitter engineers already have been assigned to look at Vine's old code base, which hasn't been touched since its 2016 shutdown.
  • Musk floated the idea in a Twitter poll late Thursday night.

Why it matters: Twitter has introduced new video features since it shut Vine down, but reviving it could give video creators a platform that sits somewhat apart from general Twitter discourse.

Related: Sen. Chris Murphy calls for probe into Saudi Arabia's stake in Twitter

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5. Candy crush

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

With Halloween on the brain today, a new report from Bloomberg on the world's wealthiest families caught our attention, Hope writes.

  • Why? Two of the world's wealthiest are in charge of confectionery empires — Mars (No. 2) and Ferrero (No. 13).

State of play: For the past five generations, the Mars family in Virginia has amassed $160 billion in wealth through M&Ms, Milky Way, Snickers (Hope's favorite) and now pet-care products, Bloomberg estimates.

  • Then there's the Ferrero clan from Italy who has amassed $37 billion over three generations from churning out Nutella, Ferrero Rocher, Kinder and Tic Tac.
  • For context, the Waltons (of Walmart) are the wealthiest family with $225 billion in wealth.
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6. What they're saying
"Their profits are a windfall of war."
— President Biden describing oil companies' record profits while urging Congress to impose new taxes if the industry doesn't take more action to lower fuel prices and boost domestic output.
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A message from Reel Paper

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Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.

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