| | | | | | | Presented By Raytheon Technologies | | | | Axios Markets | | By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Oct 31, 2022 | | ðð It's Halloween! May your day be full of candy and assorted low-stakes high jinx — we're keeping an eye on the action at Twitter HQ in between bites of mini Snickers. Today's newsletter is 1,105 words, 4.5 minutes. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Tech's hiring binge is over |  Data: Indeed; Chart: Axios Visuals Rest in peace to the hiring frenzy of 2021. Demand for workers in certain pandemic-hot sectors — especially tech — is down sharply from last year, per job site Indeed's latest numbers, Emily writes. Why it matters: Big Tech went on a hiring binge over the past year, as Axios' Ina Fried reports. Now the diet begins. The industry is in "belt-tightening" mode — with hiring freezes and even layoffs on the menu, she writes. - The industry's woes could be an early indicator of what's to come in the broader labor market, which has so far stayed strong despite other worrying signs in the economy.
Fewer job openings mean less demand for workers. It's also an indicator that folks won't be able to job-hop their way to the kind of sky-high pay increases certain professionals scored in 2021. Zoom out: Lower demand means slowing wage growth — which, as we say on repeat here at Markets, is what the Federal Reserve wants in its fight against inflation. - That's already happening. The Employment Cost Index, out Friday, showed wage growth falling in the third quarter — though still relatively high.
- Fewer workers are quitting their jobs for better prospects, ZipRecruiter's chief economist Julia Pollak said in a note, with a chart titled, "The Great Resignation is coming to an end."
- Not only are there fewer jobs on offer, but workers are nervous. "Amid increased fears of a possible recession, employees are prioritizing job security over pay," she writes.
Details: The five occupations that saw the biggest declines in demand were in areas where remote work really took off, including software development, marketing, and math-related roles (think data science or analysts). - There was a 27% decline in human resource job listings. "If you're looking to hire fewer HR people, that probably means you're looking to hire fewer people in general," says Nick Bunker, Indeed's economic research director for North America.
- Bunker says another area where demand for workers is falling is in warehousing.
Yes, but: While overall job listings are down 9% on Indeed this year, they're still 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels. - "There's still a relative bounty of job openings — it's just not as bountiful," Bunker says.
|     | | | | | | Bonus chart: The bulk-up |  Data: Company earnings reports; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios | | | | | | | | 2. Catch up quick | | ðū Wheat prices jump nearly 6% after Russia withdraws from Ukrainian grain export deal. (CNBC) ð§ð· Lula beats Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential runoff. (Axios) ð Eurozone inflation hits record high of 10.7%. (FT) | | | | | | | | A message from Raytheon Technologies | | How civil aviation is working toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 | | |  | | | | We support the industry's efforts to help address the climate change crisis. Our engineers are working on technologies that can bend the aviation emissions curve downward. Learn how improved performance, cleaner fuels and hybrid designs can play a part to help our partners achieve their goal. | | | | | | 3. Oil's well of profits |  Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals When it rains, it pours. For oil majors like Exxon and Chevron, a profit drought is definitively over, Axios' Kate Marino writes. Why it matters: Making gobs of money off oil and gas while American households adjust to record energy price inflation will put you in political and social crosshairs. - Leaders including President Biden have called on energy companies to spend some of that money on increasing production and to help keep prices down.
State of play: Exxon's $19.7 billion third-quarter profit was so huge, it was within striking distance of Apple's $20.7 billion in profits. - For perspective: Apple has a market cap of $2.5 trillion, to Exxon's mere $461 billion.
- Flashback: Once upon a time Exxon was the world's largest company — a position that Apple snatched from it over a decade ago.
ð Our thought bubble: Exxon's stock is up a ton this year, but it's not even in Apple's league. Despite the oil company's recent profit surge, investors still remember 2020 when oil prices were negative — and years of sub-$50 levels. They also see renewables on the horizon. - In other words, the environment can change quickly — and new investments take years to start paying off. That's one reason that, while producers like Exxon are increasing their output, they're not tearing up their previously drawn plans.
What they're saying: Exxon CEO Darren Woods told investors on the earnings call that the company would remain "disciplined" and stick to production goals from the beginning of the year before Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices skyrocketing. The bottom line: The company plans to shell out $30 billion for dividends and stock buybacks this year, so don't be surprised to see more exchanges like this one — between Woods and Biden on Friday. | | | | |  | | | | If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. | | | | | | | | 4. October wasn't so scary after all |  Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals The start of earnings season seemed to give the markets a lift in October, Matt writes. - The S&P 500 is up 8.8%, clawing back some of the 9.3% loss it suffered in September.
State of play: Energy stocks led. The S&P 500's energy sector climbed 24.1% through Friday, with just one session of the month left. - Some massive stocks, like Amazon, Meta and Tesla, tumbled — they're down 8%, 27% and 14%, respectively this month.
- That's weighed on the consumer discretionary and communication sectors of the S&P.
| | | | | | | | 5. Ponder this theory |  | | | Illustration: AÃŊda Amer/Axios | | | | It's possible — unlikely, but possible — that Elon Musk paid for a very large chunk of Twitter with billions of dollars he made investing in dogecoin, a joke cryptocurrency that Musk pumped aggressively in 2021 as it rose sharply in value, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Why it matters: We don't know — and might never know — who Musk's co-investors in Twitter are, and therefore who he's beholden to. We also don't know — and will never know — just how much Musk is worth. - The estimates of his net worth are just that — estimates — and could be wildly off, especially if he made a lot of money in crypto.
The intrigue: A dogecoin "whale" started buying millions of dollars of the cryptocurrency in February 2019. We know this because, on the blockchain, all transactions are public. We just don't know the identity of that whale. By the numbers: The owner of this wallet ended up spending a net total of $382 million on dogecoin by February 2021. - Then the sales started — $9.876 billion in total.
- The final profit: $9,469,897,692.
Be smart: We have no idea whether Musk is the owner of this wallet, although he has said that dogecoin is one of only three cryptocurrencies that he's ever invested in. - We similarly don't have any kind of cap table for Twitter — a list of its new shareholders. We know that Musk is at the top of the list, that crypto exchange Binance is in for $500 million, and that Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia has invested $1.9 billion. But most details of the ownership of Twitter are extremely murky.
The bottom line: As a private company, Twitter has very few reporting obligations. Eventually, if it issues bonds, some financials will become public. But for the time being, it's pretty much a black box. | | | | | | | | A message from Raytheon Technologies | | How civil aviation is working toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 | | | | | | | | We support the industry's efforts to help address the climate change crisis. Our engineers are working on technologies that can bend the aviation emissions curve downward. Learn how improved performance, cleaner fuels and hybrid designs can play a part to help our partners achieve their goal. | | | | ðđ 1 thing Matt will miss: The Killer. Jerry Lee Lewis, arguably the last of rock-and-roll's founding fathers, died on Friday at the age of 87. Given the man's penchant for excess — alcohol, amphetamines, sedatives, tax issues, firearms, and wives (seven!) — few would have bet on him being the last man standing. To be clear, he wasn't a great guy — one story about how he got the Killer nickname was for attempting to strangle a teacher with his own necktie as a child — but, hey, the guy could play. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here! Today's newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece. |  | | Why stop here? Let's go Pro. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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