The five Senate seats most likely to flip

The Independent's US politics newsletter

November 01, 2022 View in browser Breaking the oath Yesterday was just another day in the trial of senior members of the Oath Keepers – meaning another day of harrowing evidence about the group's conduct around the time of the January 6 riot, including their activities inside the building. The top witness was Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who testified about a face-off with several Oath Keepers in the hallway near Nancy Pelosi's office; as shown on video, they refused his entreaties to help law enforcement secure the building. "Dozens of officers down. We are taking them out on stretchers," he told them. "Y'all are f***ing us up."   Also testifying, however, was a member of the self-styled militia who has already pleaded guilty to obstructing Congress on the day of the election certification. Graydon Young sobbed on the stand as he apologized for his actions, explaining that "to repent and be forgiven, you have to confess completely and wholly". His emotional appearance echoes those of scores of other January 6 defendants, many of whom have pleaded guilty and cited deep remorse and shame in hopes of receiving lighter sentences. Not all judges hearing their cases have been convinced, but that Young is testifying against people facing some of the insurrection's most serious criminal charges will make a different impact altogether.       Eric Garcia's dispatches         Eric Garcia's dispatches   We are officially seven days from Election Day! Celebrate or panic as you wish.   Much has changed since our previous ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip, with some candidates pulling ahead while other races tightened up. One contest no longer on the list is North Carolina, largely thanks to an onslaught of ads from Republican groups that's helped Representative Ted Budd to pull ahead of Cheri Beasley, and to which Democrats have failed to respond in kind.   Meanwhile, things are heating up in Arizona, which returns to our ranking. Similarly, while Representative Tim Ryan put up an impressive fight against Republican JD Vance during their debates, it appears Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's onslaught of money has given the troubled Republican nominee the steam he needed to pull away.   With that, here's your final ranking of the top five Senate seats most likely to flip. Yell at us accordingly.   #1: Nevada   We keep telling you: it all comes down to Nevada. We're now at that inevitable moment in the election cycle where political nerds everywhere start furiously refreshing their Twitter feeds to catch friend of the newsletter Jon Ralston's latest updates on early voting in Nevada. Writing on The Nevada Independent's early voting blog Monday, he reported that roughly a third of the speculated vote is already in, and that so far, Democrats are in the lead with mail-in voters while Republicans lead with among in-person early voters. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows a virtual dead heat between Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and her Republican opponent Adam Laxalt, who this weekend faced a brutal story that his campaign paid an operative who ran an antisemitic Twitter account.   Both are calling in the big guns: Former president Donald Trump campaigned in Minden with Mr Laxalt last month, while, Barack Obama, who won Nevada twice, will shortly be heading to Las Vegas. Senator Elizabeth Warren will arrive the day after, and Bernie Sanders – who won the Nevada caucus in 2020 thanks to his support among Latino voters – is planning a visit of his own.   #2: Georgia   Last week, a hot mic caught Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer telling President Joe Biden that while the Senate debate in Pennsylvania "didn't hurt us too much" and Democrats were "picking up steam in Nevada," he warned that despite early voting, "the state where we're going downhill is Georgia".   That might shock some, especially given the allegations that Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker paid for one woman's abortion and drove another to an abortion clinic, to say nothing of the embarrassing incident when he flashed a faux police badge in his debate with Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. Yet recent polls from both InsiderAdvantage/Fox 5 and the Atlanta Journal Constitution gave Mr Walker a three-point lead, this as the Times/Siena College poll found Mr Warnock enjoys the same advantage. But no major poll currently gives either candidate a majority of the vote, and under Georgia law, if that doesn't change on election day, it will go to a runoff.   That moves Georgia up a spot on our list, overtaking…   #3: Pennsylvania   Pennsylvania moves down one on our list simply because it has too many variables at work. Democrats fretted about Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman's performance during his sole debate against Republican television physician Mehmet Oz, but they think they scored an ace in the hole when Dr Oz declared that same night that "abortion should be the business of a woman, her doctor, and her local political leaders".   Some polls have shown that Dr Oz has taken the lead (though we explained the pros and cons of the InsiderAdvantage poll last week). Some partisan polls have come out. The Times/Siena poll showed Mr Fetterman in the lead and Dr Oz's unfavorables still high – but as friend of the newsletter Manu Raju at CNN tweeted, pollsters were mainly in the field the day before and during the debate, and only picked up respondents on one day afterward.   #4: Wisconsin   This rise from fifth place to fourth is less of a bump for Wisconsin itself as much as a recognition that North Carolina and Arizona are even less likely to flip.   Put simply, time is running out for the Badger State's Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. He recently had the benefit of a recent visit by the aforementioned Mr Obama, who torched incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in a fiery speech in Milwaukee – yielding one exegesis on social security that's been viewed more than 14m times on Twitter – but it likely came too late.   Even after two debates, Mr Johnson is still in the lead, whether by as little as one point (according to a CNN poll) or as much as six points (per a Marquette University Law School survey). There may be a week left for Mr Barnes to flip the script, but it's not likely.   #5: Arizona   The contest between Democratic Senator Mark Kelly and Blake Masters creeps up from being off our list to rounding it off. While the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved it back from "lean Democratic" to "tossup", polling shows Mr Masters, a Trump-backed protege of right-wing venture capitalist Peter Thiel, has tightened up the race, but he still trails Mr Kelly. The two have had a change to square off in their debate, but Mr Kelly still enjoys a significant money advantage while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has forsaken Mr Masters. And while friends of the newsletter Lachlan Markay and Jonathan Swan at Axios report that the right-wing Club for Growth has dropped a whopping $5.5m in the final days of the race, the Times/Siena survey still found Mr Kelly enjoying a six-point lead. Reading list John Bowden: From voting rights to abortion: What happens if the Democrats pulls off a major midterm win Alex Woodward: A Trump-endorsed Republican could end up running New York. Inside the wild rise of Lee Zeldin What else you need to know today With energy and gas prices still punishingly high, Joe Biden yesterday called for a tax on oil companies getting rich off the conflict in Ukraine – condemning them for hoarding "the windfall from a brutal conflict" that is "hurting tens of millions of people around the globe". He also insisted that it is the companies' responsibility to act "in the interest of their consumers, their community and their country ... by increasing production and refining capacity" –  something that would help both everyday Americans and his own party, which is struggling to win voters' confidence on economic matters. The aftermath of the violent attack on Paul Pelosi has seen many prominent figures on the right ignoring expectations of public empathy in favor of ridicule, political point-scoring and conspiracy theory. Donald Trump has blamed the attack on "Democrat-run cities"; Ted Cruz, who initially condemned the attack as an "unacceptable" act of political violence, has since shared tweets promoting assorted falsehoods about the suspected assailant. Arizona gubernatorial candidate and dedicated Trumpist Kari Lake played the attack for a laugh at a campaign event – and more disturbingly, far-right activist Charlie Kirk has invited his followers to help free the accused attacker. "Bail him out and ask him some questions," he said on his podcast yesterday. Rudy Giuliani, who faces various legal threats over his public lying about the 2020 election –  including a massive lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems – has been hit with yet another setback: a judge has dismissed his motion to dismiss a defamation claim brought against him by two Georgia election workers who claim his statements about the election exposed them to threats and abuse. Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, who are mother and daughter, testified at one of the January 6 committee's televised hearings this summer, laying bear the extent to which pro-Trump election conspiracies that singled them out have changed their lives. Having repeatedly failed in three years of attempts to stop the House Ways and Means Committee obtaining his tax returns, Donald Trump is making a last-ditch effort to keep the documents secret. According to an emergency appeal filed by his lawyers at the Supreme  Court yesterday, allowing the committee to access the returns would "undermine the separation of powers and render the office of the Presidency vulnerable to invasive information demands from political opponents in the legislative branch". Mr Trump has never made his personal tax returns public, repeatedly and falsely claiming he cannot do so while under IRS audit (which he is not). And finally Two decades ago, the Supreme Court confirmed that universities could take race into account in their admissions processes. That principle of race-based affirmative action is now before the court again in the form of a legal challenge against two universities from campaign Students for Fair Admissions, and so far, the schools concerned are having a hard time convincing the right-wing judges what the point of the policy is. Clarence Thomas, on many issues the court's most conservative member, asked at oral arguments what "academic benefits" come from diversity besides "feeling good and all that stuff" – opining that "I've heard the word diversity quite a few times, and I don't have a clue what it means". Articles available exclusively to subscribers The Independent Editorial: Brazil is in steadier hands with President Lula in charge OTHER NEWSLETTERS YOU MIGHT LIKE The Race Report Fortnightly, 7am (UK time) Written by Nadine White Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now If you can spare a minute we'd love your feedback on our newsletters. 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