The Boris Johnson scenarios

The Boris Johnson scenarios

SUBSCRIBE SUBSCRIBE March 23, 2023 View in browser The Boris Johnson scenarios Most people seem to think that the best outcome of the privileges committee inquiry for Rishi Sunak would be for Boris Johnson to be forced to fight and lose a by-election. Rob Hayward, the Conservative peer and psephologist, says that is what would happen if there were a by-election in Uxbridge (see below).  Paradoxically, though, that might be best for Johnson, because it would allow him to go on the chicken run to a safer seat and to be back in the Commons at the general election, ready to fight Kemi Badenoch for the leadership of the opposition. Otherwise, he risks losing his seat at the general election (it is far from safe) and being left like Michael Portillo in 1997, waiting for a by-election to get back in. Quiz question When and where was the first referendum held on the UK joining the European Communities? Answer at the bottom of today's email Daily briefing Boris would lose by-election, says pollster The ex-PM would lose his Uxbridge seat if forced to face a by-election, said Tory peer Lord Hayward. Sunak saved £300,000 due to tax cut he voted for The PM save the huge sum thanks to a cut to capital gains tax that he voted for back in 2016. Junior doctors announce four-day strike The BMA said the 96-hour walkout would take place between 11 April and Saturday 15 April. Articles driving the biggest conversations Boris Johnson claimed No 10 drinks party was for official who didn't leave until month later Articles available exclusively to subscribers Why the DUP Brexit rebellion matters and what's next for Northern Ireland What else do you need to know today? Keir Starmer has published his tax returns, adding to the debate about capital gains tax, as he paid £24,000 on the sale of a house he bought with his sister for her and her children to live in  Thirty-five years ago today Tony Benn, who did more to damage the Labour Party than anyone until Jeremy Corbyn, challenged Neil Kinnock for the Labour leadership; I think Keir Starmer, a 25-year-old activist, supported the campaign, although I am still waiting for a response to my query to his office about it Thanks to Adam Forrest, without whom this newsletter would not be possible Rentoul's reading list Emma Duncan, The Times: the SNP problem is like the ANC's – the cost to competence from a focus on national identity Ben Ansell wrote about the difficulty of taxing wealth more heavily – it's unpopular, although equalising capital gains tax and income tax rates may not be I wrote for Independent Premium about Keir Starmer's problem of inauthenticity in posing as tough on crime I wrote, too late for yesterday's newsletter, about Boris Johnson's humiliation on two fronts  Robert Shrimsley of the FT says a Starmer government would be very different from a renewed Sunak one after the next election (paywall). What I said  £99 £20 for 1 year ✓ Full access to Premium news analysis ✓ Advert-free reading across web and app ✓ The Independent Daily Edition newspaper ✓ Puzzles, virtual event tickets and more SUBSCRIBE NOW Inside the bubble What to look out for tomorrow  Private members' bills are being debated in the Commons from 9.30am, including Greg Clark's Protection from Sex-based Harassment in Public Bill. The bill has government support and should pass; as should Lord Hayward's Ballot Secrecy Bill, designed to prevent "family voting", promoted in the Commons by Paul Bristow. Quotation of the day "If you're going to make reforms, you have to carry the public with you." Keir Starmer, U-turning on the gender recognition bill in Scotland Quiz answer: France held a referendum in 1972 on the accession of Denmark, Ireland, Norway and the UK, which was approved by 68 per cent (Norway didn't join in the end) We noticed that you might not be registered By registering, you will enjoy limited access to Independent Premium articles, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists REGISTER FOR FREE OTHER NEWSLETTERS YOU MIGHT LIKE Morning Headlines Weekdays, 8am (UK time) Written by the UK team Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now Morning Headlines Weekdays, 8am (UK time) Written by the UK team Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now News you can trust The Independent has a 100% NewsGuard trust rating FIND OUT MORE If you can spare a minute we'd love your feedback on our newsletters. 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