How to judge last week’s local elections

How to judge last week's local elections

SUBSCRIBE SUBSCRIBE May 09, 2023 View in browser How to judge last week's local elections Welcome back. Westminster is back in business, and the newsletter with it. Before the break, on the day before the local elections, I said, taking my cue from Professor Sir John Curtice, that a Labour lead of 10 points in projected national vote share would be a good result for Keir Starmer.  Sir John's estimate was that Labour were 9 points ahead. Prof Michael Thrasher's projection for Sky News was 7 points. Debate has raged all weekend about whether Labour is "on course for" a Commons majority or a hung parliament. Sir John pronounces for The Independent today: the swing in the local elections is what "on the current constituency boundaries Labour might well need to secure an overall majority of one". On the new boundaries, which will come into effect later this year, that would mean Labour was 5-10 seats short of a majority.   Quiz question Who came third in the Conservative leadership election in July last year? Answer at the bottom of today's email Daily briefing Ex-spin doctor: Boris called Sue Gray 'psycho' Guto Harri said Johnson was scathing about the top civil servant and "squared up" to Charles over Rwanda. Ex-Labour minister accuses Starmer of 'moral cowardice' Chris Mullin says expelling Jeremy Corbyn was a "cynical" bid to "appease the mob". Giant barge for 500 migrants has arrived The Bibby Stockholm barge – described as a "prison hulk" –arrived in Falmouth before it goes on to Portland, Dorset. Articles driving the biggest conversations Metropolitan Police chief defends coronation arrests and says crowds cheered crackdown Articles available exclusively to subscribers 'Starmer's use of union jack is 'fatherlandism' and phoney patriotism' What else do you need to know today? Keir Starmer has given three interviews, to the BBC, ITV News and Sky News, in which he ruled out a post-election deal with the Scottish National Party but called a coalition with the Liberal Democrats "hypothetical"  Chris Philp, the policing minister, was sent to the Commons to answer an urgent question from Joanna Cherry of the SNP about the coronation protest arrests: he said the intelligence was that disruption was planned The Conservative Bill of Rights appears to be dead again, but it has been dead before, only to reappear: it must be the policy most often promised in the manifesto of an election-winning party that has never been implemented Thanks to Archie Mitchell without whom this newsletter would not be possible Rentoul's reading list Chris Mullin, Labour former minister and friend of Tony Benn, publishes the fourth volume of his brilliant diaries this week –exclusive extract in Independent Premium    Janan Ganesh of the Financial Times points out that the world dealt with coronavirus better than we thought it would at the start (paywall) Tyler Cowen is non-alarmist about robots killing us all; Ian Leslie, on the other hand, thinks we should take Geoff Hinton, who has resigned from Google, seriously I wrote for The Independent at the weekend about Keir Starmer being "on course" to be prime minister of a minority Labour government in a hung parliament  £99 £20 for 1 year ✓ Full access to Premium news analysis ✓ Advert-free reading across web and app ✓ The Independent Daily Edition newspaper ✓ Puzzles, virtual event tickets and more SUBSCRIBE NOW Inside the bubble Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for tomorrow Ministers will answer Commons questions on Northern Ireland from 11.30am, before Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer lock horns for the first time since the local elections at Prime Minister's Questions at noon.  We can expect a heated four-hour debate in the House of Lords, where the Illegal Migration Bill designed to "stop the boats" will have its second reading, from 11am. Not the time for hostile amendments but there will be plenty of those at a later stage.  Sunak will host a Downing Street event to mark the Eurovision Song Contest being held in Liverpool on Saturday on behalf of Ukraine. And finally "This evening, a Labour Party political broadcast. Keir Starmer in front of a Union Jack (ugh), which I gather is known in PR circles as 'fatherlandism'. Why can't we leave phoney patriotism to the Tories?" Chris Mullin, diary entry, 1 February 2021 Quiz answer: Penny Mordaunt, by eight MPs' votes, on 105, behind Liz Truss on 113 and Rishi Sunak on 137, having been in second place until the final MPs ballot We noticed that you might not be registered By registering, you will enjoy limited access to Independent Premium articles, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists REGISTER FOR FREE OTHER NEWSLETTERS YOU MIGHT LIKE Morning Headlines Weekdays, 8am (UK time) Written by the UK team Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now Morning Headlines Weekdays, 8am (UK time) Written by the UK team Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now The Independent proudly partners with Refuge and the National Domestic Abuse Helpline: 0808 2000 247 News you can trust The Independent has a 100% NewsGuard trust rating FIND OUT MORE If you can spare a minute we'd love your feedback on our newsletters. 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