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-8
That’s the net difference between President Biden’s approval rating currently and former President Obama’s at this same point in his presidency in 2011. Biden currently has an average approval of 39% and average disapproval of 55%, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight. That’s a net job approval rating of -16.
Gallup keeps the best data on rolling job approval averages for presidents, and at this same point in 2011 for Obama, he had a 42%-50% rating, for a net rating of -8.
But this doesn’t mean Biden’s chances for reelection are completely imperiled. First, other surveys, including Marist, which does polling for NPR, have slightly different numbers – and Biden and Obama largely mirror each other in its data. At this time in 2011, Marist found Obama with a 43%-50% rating and the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll has Biden at 43%-52% among all adults and 42%-51% among registered voters.
Undoubtedly, Biden is lagging with his own party right now, especially young voters and nonwhites, not to mention independents, whom Biden won in 2020. But the campaign isn’t in full swing, and the GOP opponent isn’t selected yet and hasn’t seen negative ads. When all that does happen, there’s usually a rally-round-the-nominee effect that takes place and a perhaps less-willing, anti-Trump coalition that voted for Biden once very well may do so again.
Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said in an interview with NBC News that voters right now are suffering from “brain fog” when it comes to Trump, but predicted that won’t last.
“As people are reminded of what it was like,” he said, “and they are forced to tune back in and listen to that during the course of a presidential race, they’re going to reject his extremism, his chaos and his danger.”
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Biden’s reelection chances aren’t helped by ads like these – from a super PAC supporting Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who is challenging Biden. It points out Biden’s struggles in recent polls against Trump.
“2024 is different – Trump is winning,” an announcer says as a screen shot of those New York Times/Siena polls comes up on screen. “It's time to pass the torch. I am the Democratic candidate who can win. It is time for the torch to be passed to a new generation of American leaders.”
Phillips hasn't made much of a policy argument against Biden, but these kinds of arguments – from people in his own party – will only serve to reinforce Biden’s vulnerability. |
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Trail Mix: The Latest from the 2024 Campaign |
Sean Rayford/Getty Images |
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-- By Jeongyoon Han, NPR Politics editorial assistant
Republicans
Nikki Haley: It’s been a good 24 hours for Haley: In addition to AFP Action’s endorsement, yesterday she was met with a crowd of 2,500 in her home state of South Carolina at an event that was supposed to be a town hall. It turned into a “full-blown rally,” Politico notes. It’s another good sign for her, as she tries to consolidate the anti-Trump vote.
Ron DeSantis: Sure, the Florida governor has nabbed some notable endorsements last week, with Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vaander Plaats and Texas Rep. Chip Roy backing him. But those external sources of support are doing little to put out the fires in his inner campaign circle. Tempers rose to the point of a near brawl at a private meeting for Never Back Down (NBD), the pro-DeSantis super PAC, as its members struggle to figure out how to pitch DeSantis as a compelling alternative to Trump. Soon after the news of the internal turmoil went public, NBD’s chief executive, Chris Jankowski, announced he would resign, effective immediately.
Donald Trump: Trump’s eye was on South Carolina this past weekend as he ventured into Haley territory. At the Palmetto Bowl on Saturday between Clemson and the University of South Carolina, Trump stood with Gov. Henry McMaster for photos as the crowd greeted the MAGA leader both with boos and cheers. Former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo said the visit all adds up to concern from the Trump campaign that Haley “could give him a run for his money” in her state, reports Newsweek.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Ah, the hallowed Des Moines Turkey Trot. It attracts young and old — and entrepreneurs running for president. Ramaswamy ran five miles with his 1-year-old son Arjun in a stroller in an attempt to show how much he’s putting into not just in his campaign, but also in Iowa. “I think the way and the effort and the energy we're putting into this campaign is a signal of how hard we're going to work every day, hopefully, when I'm in that White House and leading this country to a national revival," Ramaswamy said.
Chris Christie: The former New Jersey governor shut down the idea that he and Haley would work together to consolidate the anti-Trump vote. In an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union,” Christie said, “This idea of people just doing math and adding up numbers, that’s not the way voters vote. … And, so, I would say to everybody out there: Let’s let the campaign move forward.” In New Hampshire, Haley is polling in second place, and Christie in third — and both still behind Trump.
Democrats
Joe Biden: As Atlantic senior editor Ronald Brownstein writes, a recent press release from the Biden campaign shows exactly how they plan on securing votes for the president in a likely showdown with Trump: by showing the electorate “what their lives might look like if the leading GOP candidate for president is allowed back in the White House.” Brownstein says that although Biden’s low approval numbers make his path to securing reelection more challenging, highlighting Trump’s divisive stances might be enough to tip the scales in favor of Biden.
Dean Phillips: The Minnesota lawmaker is saying goodbye to his current gig as he charges forward in his presidential run. Phillips, who has served in Congress for seven years, announced Friday he won’t run for reelection.
Third Party
Cornel West: The independent candidate has his eyes set on Michigan, where Politico reports West hopes to consolidate support for his bid among Black and Arab Americans who are disgruntled with Biden’s presidency.
Jill Stein: The Green Party nominee held a formal presidential launch call last Tuesday after previously announcing her bid for the presidency on Twitter. In the Zoom conversation, Stein invited Miko Peled, an Israeli-born and pro-Palestinian activist, and Chris Small, a trade union organizer for Amazon workers. “People are tired of being thrown under the bus by wealthy elites and their bought politicians,” she said. “The political system is broken. We need a party that serves the people. I’m running for president to offer that choice for the people.” |
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