The field shrinks

How high can RFK Jr. go? Plus: China pops up in campaign ads

View this email online This special NPR Politics newsletter series aims to dive into the 2024 presidential campaign to sort through the noise and help you understand what really matters. Nov. 14, 2023 By Domenico Montanaro, NPR’s senior political editor/correspondent The Big Picture: The Field Shrinks Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images Vowing to “root out” and crush political critics, likening them to “vermin” and calling yourself a “proud election denier” is the kind of dehumanizing language usually reserved for dictators, tyrants and strongmen. That’s exactly what former President Trump did over the weekend, but you likely won’t hear anything about it from Trump’s rivals.  Not even the top two who want to dethrone him and whom Trump has given diminutive nicknames — Ron “DeSanctimonious”/“DeSanctus” a.k.a. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or “Birdbrain.” The latter is fairly new one Trump is using for his former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley since her rise in the polls in recent weeks.  The Republican presidential candidates don’t take him on strongly about the 91 felony counts he faces for fear of awakening the hornet’s nest of vindictiveness that the Trump base can unleash. And that leaves Trump free to say and do what he wants – no matter how extreme. The GOP field is dwindling — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott bowed out this week following Pence’s exit a week earlier. The next Republican debate stage, in less than a month in Alabama, will likely be even smaller. While that may help the DeSantis and Haley stand out, the clock is ticking for them to start really making up ground. That's because Trump has a pretty big cushion. He has not just a 40-percentage point lead in national polling for the GOP nomination, but he’s ahead by almost 30 points in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. As a result, Trump is largely focusing on his legal troubles, and attempting to turn that in his favor. He wants the federal trial he faces to be on camera, something federal prosecutors are very much against, fearing Trump turning it into a “carnival,” an effort to “try his case in the courtroom of public opinion and turn his trial into a media event.” Trump hasn’t made any bones about the fact that he wants to do exactly that. He wants to stay in the limelight and play the victim, as he has since he got on the national political stage.  And he's doing that without much criticism from his rivals, who are busy targeting each other and running out of time. Read More Newsletter continues after sponsor message By The Numbers Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images $1 million Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis’ campaign teams said they each raised more than $1 million in the 24 hours following the third GOP presidential debate on Wednesday. 8-0 Democrats are defending eight Senate seats now that are either toss ups, leaning in a direction or, in the case of Sen. Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat, already solidly in the Republican column, according to the Cook Political Report.  On the other hand, there are zero Republican seats (yes, zero) in the toss up or lean columns. In all, Democrats are defending 23 seats, compared to 11 for Republicans, highlighting how hard it will be for Democrats to retain the Senate, especially with Manchin’s retirement and their one-seat majority. Support your local station with the NPR+ podcast bundle. NPR+ is a new way to support mission-driven journalism while getting something great in return (aside from that warm & fuzzy feeling of making a difference). Enjoy sponsor-free listening from your favorite NPR podcasts, explore the 800+ episode archives of Car Talk, and even get fun bonus episodes from select shows like Fresh Air, Planet Money, Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me! and more.  Your support means the world to us—so sign up at plus.npr.org today! Support your station with NPR+ Third Party Watch: How High Can RFK Jr. Go? Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images Despite – or perhaps because of RFK Jr.’s controversial anti-vaccine stance, there have been some eye-poppingly high poll results for him.  The New York Times/Siena swing-state polls showed him getting up to a quarter in some states. He pulled slightly more from Trump than Biden. (Our NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found a similar national result.) A recent Quinnipiac poll had him at a whopping 22% when matched up with Biden and Trump. He pulled from both men in that survey, though Biden maintained a 3-point lead over Trump.  As CNN’s Harry Enten notes, 22% is the highest any independent candidate has polled since Ross Perot in 1992. Perot wound up with 19% of the vote. Whether the high numbers last is another question, because independent candidates usually fade – John Anderson in 1980 was polling above 20%, but finished with 7%; George Wallace in 1968 hit 21% in one survey, but finished with 14%. Surveys have been all over when it comes to the political scion with the famous last name, and who he pulls from more – Biden or Trump – is still not entirely clear, but there is undoubtedly the potential, if not the likelihood, for him to take a fairly sizable chunk of the electorate.  Others to keep an eye on: Joe Manchin: Now that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin won’t run for reelection, he’s got his eyes set on mobilizing the middle of the country. But what does that even mean? Is that a hint toward a possible presidential bid?  Jill Stein: The 73-year-old physician and activist announced Thursday she’d run for the Green Party nomination for president weeks after academic Cornel West announced he’d run as an independent. Stein ran twice before, and her 2016 race, in particular, frustrated the Democratic establishment because they viewed her bid as a spoiler to Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid against Trump in 2016.  Cornel West: The independent party candidate spoke at a pro-Palestinian protest on Sunday in front of the United Nations in New York City, condemning the United States’ stance on the “genocidal attack” in Gaza. Ad Watch: China rising Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images President Biden is meeting China’s President Xi on Wednesday — and more Americans are concerned with the threat posed by China than at any time in the last 40 years. As a result, China is popping up in lots of campaign ads lately.  DeSantis and Haley allies are trading allegations, for example. Never Back Down, the super PAC supporting DeSantis, is running this ad in New Hampshire and Iowa, attacking Haley for bringing a Chinese company to South Carolina. SFA Fund, a super PAC supporting Haley, is responding, targeting DeSantis and accusing him of lying about Haley’s record, and it’s running this ad touting Haley’s toughness toward China.  China is even popping up like a spy balloon in the Montana Senate race. Both incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, one of the most endangered Democrats in the country, and potential GOP challenger Tim Sheehy have traded barbs about it.  So far, $18 million has been spent in the presidential race on TV ads mentioning China with ads airing more than 46,500 times, according to data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact and analyzed by NPR.  Trail Mix: Stories From The 2024 Campaign Republicans Doug Burgum: He’s vowing to “absolutely, positively” stick it out through Iowa and New Hampshire. That, despite not even qualifying for the third GOP presidential debate (he likely won't make the cut for the upcoming fourth, either). Ron DeSantis: In another attempt to channel his governorship into his presidential run, DeSantis signed legislation to sanction Iran and protect Jewish institutions in Florida. Nikki Haley: Haley’s campaign is making a $10 million ad buy in December, which her team says is more than five times greater than DeSantis’ ad reserves for that same time frame.  Vivek Ramaswamy: He’s (finally) moving staff from suburban Ohio to Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s also out with a dramatic ad criticizing DeSantis and Haley as war mongers intersplicing images of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney with his rivals. Democrats Dean Phillips: Some Democratic financial donors, who once supported Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips’ primary bid are now backing out. They’re demanding he return their donations or make sure the money won’t go toward campaign funds. It’s a sign of a growing anger in the party establishment over Phillips’ campaign, which could threaten Biden’s standing in the race.  Joe Biden: The president is in campaign mode. At a UAW event last week, he touted himself as a stronger supporter for manufacturing jobs than Trump. Then, at a reception in Chicago, he told guests there that Democrats won the Nov. 7 election because “the Biden-Harris agenda has taken hold.” -- With research and reporting from Jeongyoon Han, NPR Politics editorial assistant Listen to your local NPR station. Visit NPR.org to hear live radio from St. Louis Public Radio (edit station). What do you think of today's email? We'd love to hear your thoughts, questions and feedback: nprpolitics@npr.org Enjoying this newsletter? Forward to a friend! They can sign up here. Looking for more great content? Check out all of our newsletter offerings — including Daily News, Code Switch, Health and more! You received this message because you're subscribed to Politics emails. This email was sent by National Public Radio, Inc., 1111 North Capitol Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 Unsubscribe  |  Privacy Policy