The View from Westminster

Tuesday, December 12, 2023 Echoes of the Maastricht vote in 1993 This newsletter goes out an hour before the bells ring for the votes in the House of Commons. The result of the key vote, which will be the second after 7pm, is expected at about 7.30pm. For what it is worth, the average guess in my Twitter sweepstake, after 80 entries, is a government majority of 16.   If the government loses, Rishi Sunak could return to the Commons tomorrow and ask MPs to vote again, this time as a matter of confidence. That is what happened in 1993, when John Major lost a vote on the Maastricht treaty by eight votes and put it to the vote again the next day, winning it as an issue of confidence by 38 votes.  Making it an issue of confidence means that the prime minister intends to call a general election if he loses the vote, but more importantly it means that any Conservative MP who fails to vote for the government will be expelled from the parliamentary party and will not be allowed to stand as a Conservative candidate.  So the bill will probably go through this stage, one way or another. But it is not clear that it would stop the boats if it makes it on to the statute book in the new year.   Quiz question  Which actor has played Miss Trunchbull, Donald Trump, Rupert Murdoch and Tony Blair? Answer at the bottom of today's email Daily briefing Rishi Sunak is warned by William Hague: Tories may never win power again PM's mentor warns Tories 'could be out of power for ever' if they don't unite ahead of key vote tonight UK climate minister returns from Cop28 summit to vote Graham Stuart flies thousands of miles for crunch Commons vote on Rwanda bill Keir Starmer attacks Tories for behaving like Donald Trump Labour leader's speech marked the fourth anniversary of Labour's electoral wipeout under Jeremy Corbyn Most commented Articles driving the biggest conversations Gary Lineker hits back after being told to stick to football over Rwanda views Diana Rigg's plea for assisted dying was heartfelt, but wrong What else do you need to know today? ● Nick Brown, Labour's former chief whip who was suspended by the party after a complaint against him, has announced that he won't stand at the next election; he is also quitting the Labour Party because of a complaints process he believes is "fundamentally, and inexcusably, flawed" ● Tony Blair was spotted in the Palace of Westminster today; perhaps he is about to be made a peer (not) ● Today's House of Commons debate on the Rwanda bill was one of those that is worth reading in Hansard Reading list ● I wrote for Independent Premium, welcoming Keir Starmer's admission that Labour lost its way after Tony Blair ceased to be leader ● Paul Clements: veganism is over... and, as a vegan myself, I couldn't be happier about it (Independent Premium) ● Philip Cowley, professor of parliamentary rebellions, on tonight's vote  ● Mary Ann Sieghart: when men don't listen to women – female Israeli soldiers warned for months that Hamas was planning something (paywall) Inside the bubble Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for tomorrow The final session of Prime Minister's Questions before Christmas at noon will be shaped by tonight's Commons vote on the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. MPs will then debate the Finance Bill, which implements the tax measures in last month's autumn statement. Before PMQs, Kemi Badenoch will answer questions as women's and equalities minister from 11.30am. She is also one of six senior ministers being quizzed by select committees, appearing before the Women's and Equalities Committee at 4pm. The Home Affairs Committee will get two for the price of one at 2.30pm – Michael Tomlinson, the new minister for illegal migration and Tom Pursglove, the minister for legal migration. Michelle Donelan, the technology minister, will be questioned at 9.15am; Edward Argar, the prisons minister, at 2.30pm and Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, will make her debut at the health select committee at 4pm. Quotation of the Day "Seventy per cent of the people we are seeking to remove put in a modern slavery claim at the eleventh hour." Robert Jenrick, recently immigration minister Quiz answer: Bertie Carvel The Independent proudly partners with Refuge and the National Domestic Abuse Helpline: 0808 2000 247 Join the conversation or follow us Download the free Independent app Please do not reply directly to this email   You are currently registered to receive The Independent's View From Westminster newsletter.   To unsubscribe from The Independent's View From Westminster newsletter, or to manage your email preferences please click here.   This e-mail was sent by Independent Digital News and Media Ltd, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1AH. Registered in England and Wales with company number 07320345 Read our privacy notice and cookie policy