The Morning: Labor’s very good year

Plus, a Trump town hall, southern Gaza and Off Broadway.

View in browser|nytimes.com December 6, 2023 SUPPORTED BY By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the potential comeback of labor unions — as well as a Trump town hall, southern Gaza and Off Broadway. U.A.W. in Chicago. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times This year has been a good one for labor unions. They have won victories in Hollywood and the auto industry, and 67 percent of Americans approve of unions, according to Gallup. Still, I remain skeptical that union organizing is on the cusp of a major turnaround, unless federal law changes. For now, companies that aren't unionized have many ways to prevent a union from forming even when most workers want to join one. But my colleague Noam Scheiber, who covers the workplace and labor, thinks I may be underestimating the chances of big change in the next few years. I asked Noam to use today's newsletter to explain why he thinks 2023 was such an important year for organized labor. Momentum matters By Noam Scheiber Employers do have real advantages when seeking to suppress unions. If an employer fires a worker for trying to organize a union — which is illegal — it typically takes years to litigate the case. Even if the employer is found guilty, it will at most have to pay back wages and some other "make whole" compensation, not a financial penalty for the wrongdoing. So there's little disincentive to violating the law. In 2021, the National Labor Relations Board found that Tesla had illegally fired a worker four years earlier for engaging in union activity, and the board ordered the company to reinstate him with back pay. Tesla appealed the decision in federal court and lost but is continuing to appeal. The worker has yet to be reinstated. Starbucks and Amazon have taken similar approaches. Even if workers succeed at unionizing, the law offers few tools for forcing employers to negotiate a contract. Employers can wait out newly unionized workers in the hopes that they'll become demoralized and quit, allowing the company to hire new workers who will vote the union out. In 2021, House Democrats passed a bill, the PRO Act, to address these issues. The bill died in the Senate. That said, I'm not convinced that the organizing activity over the past few years is leading nowhere. Even as the rate of unionization fell to its lowest level on record in 2022, with only 10.1 percent of workers belonging to a union, there was still an absolute increase of nearly 300,000 unionized workers. (That is, the numerator rose substantially; it's just that the denominator rose even more as workers re-entered the work force once the pandemic subsided.) I think we've passed some key milestones. For example, last year Microsoft hammered out an agreement with a major union, the Communications Workers of America, that allowed employees to unionize without pushback from management and without a contentious election. Microsoft appeared to do so, at least in part, so that the union would not oppose its purchase of the video game maker Activision Blizzard. A few hundred video game workers at Microsoft have already unionized under the agreement — a first at a major tech company — and they will likely finalize a labor contract next year. If more Microsoft workers follow suit, the attention could put pressure on other companies where workers have unionized but are struggling to negotiate a contract, like Starbucks, Microsoft's Seattle-area neighbor. In the auto sector, the United Automobile Workers is making a considerable investment in organizing workers at nonunion manufacturers like Tesla and Toyota. While the odds may be long at any single plant, a breakthrough at one of them could create momentum elsewhere. And the union has a more compelling case to make after negotiating large wage increases and other gains during its recent strikes at the Big Three. More doctors and other health care workers are also beginning to unionize amid frustrations with understaffing and overwork. Consolidation in the U.S. health care system has left many feeling like cogs within large corporations. At Walgreens and CVS, union organizers are reaching out to restive pharmacists. Zero to 250 We learned from earlier periods — most notably the late 1930s, when the rate of union membership rose to nearly 27 percent from about 13 percent in just two years — that unionization is very much a social phenomenon: Workers see it succeed in one workplace, and then emulate it in their own, even if the law or employers aren't accommodating. That tends to make it nonlinear. It can be puttering along and then suddenly accelerate. At Starbucks, the number of unionized corporate-owned stores went from zero in November of 2021 to two in December 2021 to more than 250 by the end of 2022. One key factor in all of this will be the winner of the 2024 presidential election. On balance, Donald Trump's appointees to the National Labor Relations Board were relatively unsympathetic to unions, while President Biden's have been pretty helpful to them. Biden has also used his bully pulpit to back workers who are striking and seeking to unionize. There's reason to believe that Trump would slow down the recent organizing trend while Biden would continue to enable it. More on labor Unions have their flaws. They also have an unmatched record of lifting workers' wages and reducing income inequality. Members of the actors' union voted to approve a three-year contract with studios. Continue reading the main story A MESSAGE FROM AMAZON 14,400+ affordable homes Amazon Housing Equity Fund supports affordable housing developers around Seattle, Washington D.C., and Nashville. 2023 Impact Report THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Election During a Fox News town hall, Donald Trump twice deflected when asked if he would retaliate against his political opponents as president. He then said he wouldn't be a dictator "except for Day 1." "If Trump wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running," Biden told Democratic donors. "But we cannot let him win." A Trump confidant likely to serve in a senior national security role in a second term threatened to target journalists for prosecution. Nikki Haley, who criticized Trump before becoming his U.N. ambassador, is renewing her attacks in the 2024 presidential campaign. Reid Hoffman, the billionaire LinkedIn co-founder and a top Democratic donor, gave $250,000 to a super PAC backing Haley. Congress Senator Tommy Tuberville Kenny Holston/The New York Times Under bipartisan pressure, Senator Tommy Tuberville, an Alabama Republican, ended his blockade on most military promotions. Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the former interim House speaker, won't seek re-election. Kamala Harris has now cast more tiebreaking votes in the Senate than any previous vice president. Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, presented her with a golden gavel. Biden's push to send more military aid to Ukraine is on the brink of collapse. George Santos, the newly expelled New York Republican, is earning about $350 a pop to record personalized videos for customers on Cameo. Israel-Hamas War In Khan Younis.  Ahmed Zakot/Reuters Israeli and Hamas forces waged house-to-house battles in southern Gaza. An Israeli general called it "the most intense day since the beginning of the ground operation." Gaza's humanitarian crisis is escalating. The U.S. announced additional aid for Palestinians. Biden denounced Hamas attackers who raped women on Oct. 7, and he blamed the breakdown in cease-fire talks on the group's refusal to release its remaining female hostages. "Are we allowed to look out the window?" Read about how released child hostages are adjusting to life back in Israel. The U.S. imposed visa bans on Israeli settlers who have committed violence in the West Bank. A Republican-written resolution to condemn anti-Zionism as antisemitism divided House Democrats. Republicans also hammered the presidents of Harvard, Penn and M.I.T. about campus antisemitism. Restaurants In the second lawsuit of its kind, a family says a man died after drinking Panera's caffeinated lemonade. A woman who threw a burrito bowl at a Chipotle worker was sentenced to work in a fast-food job to avoid further jail time, The Washington Post reports. Other Big Stories Hokyoung Kim The U.S. and Europe are trying to regulate artificial intelligence — but the technology is evolving more rapidly than their policies. Peru's top court ordered former President Alberto Fujimori's release from prison, defying an international court decision. Based on the justices' questions, the Supreme Court seemed open to upholding a Trump-era tax on foreign income. The N.C.A.A. proposed uncapping compensation for athletes. That could help players of lucrative sports like football and basketball to share in the profits. Opinions Drug manufacturers limit inventory to keep prices low. When there's a mistake, the resulting shortage leaves patients vulnerable, Emily Tucker writes. The Times's columnists share questions they'd ask if they were moderating tonight's Republican debate. Progressive women are silent when it comes to Hamas's sexual violence. They'd benefit from hearing Israeli testimonies, Bret Stephens writes. The illustrator Wendy MacNaughton asks strangers to draw one another for 60 seconds — a deceptively simple way to rebuild trust. The Holiday Sale. This Cooking offer won't last. Less mess, less stress. A Cooking subscription brings you easy recipes plus step-by-step guides, videos, photos and more. Subscribe and save 50% on your first year of Cooking. MORNING READS Michelle Yeoh Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters The most Styles-ish: The 71 people, robot dolls and spheres that exemplified fashion in 2023. Grade inflation: Nearly everyone gets A's at Yale. Can't Sleep? Listen to an A.I.-generated bedtime story from Jimmy Stewart. True crime: Podcasters examined her sister's murder investigation. Then they turned on her. Just married: Some newlyweds are having their friends join the honeymoon. Lives Lived: Dr. William P. Murphy Jr. invented the vinyl blood bag, making transfusions safer and more reliable on battlefields and after accidents. He died at 100. SPORTS N.B.A.: LeBron James led the Los Angeles Lakers to the semifinals of the new In-Season Tournament with a win over Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns. Michael Oher: Sean and Leigh Anne Tuohy, the couple made famous in the movie "The Blind Side," alleged in court filings that Oher, who has accused them of malfeasance, tried to extort them. M.L.B.: Managers and front office personnel are reluctant to discuss Shohei Ohtani as the sport's Winter Meetings end with the superstar's free agency decision looming. Continue reading the main story A MESSAGE FROM AMAZON 14,400+ affordable homes Amazon Housing Equity Fund supports affordable housing developers around Seattle, Washington D.C., and Nashville. 2023 Impact Report ARTS AND IDEAS "Scene Partners" at Vineyard Theater. Sara Krulwich/The New York Times Scaling back: New York's network of small theaters — collectively known as Off Broadway — is struggling. Attendance has not rebounded from the pandemic. Costs are up. And philanthropic giving is weak. In late October, 31 shows were running Off Broadway, down from 51 shows in 2019. "There is an incredible squeeze," said Casey York, president of the Off-Broadway League. More on culture Jason Zinoman, our comedy critic, picked his funniest moments of the year, including the best stand-up special and his favorite impression. Spotify canceled two acclaimed podcasts: "Heavyweight" and "Stolen." Late-night hosts joked about the Republican presidential debate. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Joel Goldberg for The New York Times Fry Melissa Clark's classic potato latkes. Pick the best online flower delivery service. Buy these gifts for mom. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was applejack. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Correction: Yesterday's newsletter repeated the previous day's Spelling Bee pangram. The correct Monday pangram was "definitive." P.S. New York Times Cooking is running a holiday sale. If you subscribe now, you'll save 50 percent on your first year — and get access to thousands of delicious recipes from our expert cooks. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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