An Ignoble Experiment: Insider Today: China’s dwindling power

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January 21, 2024 • 4 min read

with Matt Turner

Welcome back to our Sunday edition, a roundup of some of our top stories.

On the agenda today:

For some men, OnlyFans has become a salve for loneliness.
China’s power is dwindling. It could shape the world for decades to come.
These are 30 of the most successful early-stage startup investors in the world.
Wealthy Californians are swapping their LA mansions for cheaper areas.

But first: What the global elite were saying behind closed doors in Davos.

Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Creative Photos

Dispatch

WEF worries

I’m back in New York after several days in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum. After more than 30 one-on-one meetings, panels, and random conversations, here are my four takeaways:

Artificial intelligence: WEF put on AI panels and expert lunch and learns, while the Davos promenade was dominated by AI firms and non-tech firms marketing themselves as AI firms. Sam Altman was a Davos celebrity. By the end of the week, attendees would kick off conversations by asking: “Can we talk about something other than AI?" More on that here.

Geopolitics: Iran fired missiles into Pakistan during the forum. Disruptions in the Red Sea continued, with knock-on effects for trade and inflation. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a high-profile appearance, in part to remind attendees that, yes, the war there continues and still deserves the world’s attention. Meanwhile, a third of humanity will go to the polls this year. There are lots of risks out there.

Economy: Most were cautiously optimistic about the US. It has its problems and has a high-stakes election approaching, but it’s doing better than most other economies. Elsewhere, Liu He, China’s former vice-premier, promised liberalization and open markets, while a huge China delegation operated mostly out of sight and many attendees sounded the alarm on slowing growth there.

Fragmenting forum: The gap between the official WEF program and the events around it was as wide as I’ve seen in five years of attending. While world leaders gathered in the Congress center to discuss reforming the global order, founders and CEOs were in back-to-back meetings with clients, investors, and other stakeholders. Several said attending Davos had become a cost-saving exercise, as fitting in 30-plus high-level meetings in three or four days saved them money, time, and air miles.

HadelProductions/Getty, EXTREME-PHOTOGRAPHER/Getty, Tyler Le/BI

A different side of OnlyFans

Since its inception, OnlyFans has largely been seen as a porn-focused platform. But amid an ongoing loneliness epidemic, the adult-content site has become a place for men to forge emotional connections with creators.

Business Insider spoke with 10 OnlyFans creators who said they’d had relationships with fans that extended beyond sexuality. Some describe it as a “girlfriend experience,” while others treat it more like friendship. The men they work with, creators said, want to fill an emotional need — and will pay to do it.

How OnlyFans turned into a source for connection.

Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI

Everything about China is shrinking

After years of growth — economically, culturally, and politically — the superpower is heading into a period of stagnation. Its economy is shriveling, taking the future Beijing imagined down with it.

The clearest sign of China’s diminishment is its struggle with deflation: As Americans worry about inflation, Chinese policymakers are stressing over falling prices. China’s consumer price index has declined for the past three months. It’s a sign of changing times — and what Beijing chooses to do next will shape the course of humanity.

Inside the incredible, scary shrinking China.

Also read:

China's population keeps falling — and that's more bad news for the world's 2nd-largest economy

Caterina Fake, Cindi Bi, and Suleman Ali

The most successful early-stage investors

TRAC, an early-stage venture firm, has identified investors who have a knack for backing future unicorns. The firm built what it calls "Moneyball for venture capital" — a model that uses artificial intelligence to predict which startups are most likely to hit a billion-dollar valuation.

A key part of the model is a small group of investors, known as "SuperForecasters," who have an incredible success rate investing in early-stage companies. TRAC shared 30 of its 287 SuperForecasters with Business Insider.

Meet the “SuperForecasters.”

Also read:

The 30 early-stage startups most likely to become tech's next unicorns, according to a proprietary AI model known as 'Moneyball for VC'

Charles Harker

Adieu, Los Angeles

Wealthy Californians have just about had it. From Los Angeles’ "mansion tax" to the state’s widening affordability crisis, one-percenters are starting to ditch their pricey homes in favor of cheaper areas.

High earners are no longer content with just an exclusive zip code — and are heading east in hopes of finding better deals on bigger homes, with more amenities, like pools, tennis courts, and guest houses.

Where the wealthy are headed.

Also read:

Cities to watch in 2024: Las Vegas is drawing movers who want glitzy, big-city perks — with an affordable price tag

This week's quote

"Those who have the most — whether it's countries, companies, or individuals — should be pushed to be more generous.”

— Bill Gates, while speaking on a Davos panel.

More of this weeks top reads

A leaked memo revealed hundreds of layoffs in Google’s ad-sales team.
Amazon is working on a new, paid Alexa — but the project is causing internal conflict.
Budgeting is cool now.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai says staff must brace for more job cuts in 2024.
The commercial real estate industry is bracing for the impact of AI.
Traders and bankers took us inside Wall Street's underground drug culture.
Constant job cuts could be the new normal for Big Tech.
Fishwife's founders made tinned fish “hot girl food.” Then they broke up.

The Insider Today Sunday team

Matt Turner, editor in chief of business, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York City. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York.

Get in touch

insidertoday@insider.com

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