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2024/03/29

Does This Auto Giant Have Some Gas Left in the Tank?

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Does Ford Have Some Gas Left in the Tank?

Anthony Summers, Director of Trading, The Oxford Club

Anthony Summers

Most investors wouldn't touch an auto stock with a 10-foot pole these days.

After more than a year of recession fears and sky-high interest rates, many car companies have seen their profits careen into a ditch.

So it's no surprise that Ford (NYSE: F) has seen its stock sputter. It's fallen more than 40% from its January 2022 high.

Chart: Ford Motor Co.
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But while some may see a clunker destined for the scrap heap, a deeper look under Ford's hood reveals a company that may be underappreciated by the market.

The auto giant's recently reported Q4 and full-year 2023 results provide some encouraging signs that a turnaround could be taking hold.

Revenue revved 11% higher to $176 billion for the full year, marking the second straight year of double-digit top-line growth. And net income surged from a $2 billion loss to a $4.3 billion profit, driven by continued strength in the company's Ford Pro commercial vehicle and services business and its core Ford Blue internal combustion engine operations.

And crucially, adjusted free cash flow jumped to $6.8 billion, well above the top end of Ford's guidance of $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion.

In Q4 specifically, the underlying business remained resilient despite ongoing supply chain snarls and the costly United Auto Workers strike, which dinged EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) by a hefty $1.7 billion.

When we strip out those transitory impacts, profits for Ford's core auto business actually improved year over year.

The company's balance sheet also looks sturdy, with over $46 billion in liquidity (including nearly $29 billion in cash) providing ample cushion.

But what really caught my eye is how Ford stacks up on two key valuation metrics I use in my Value Meter system.

Get Ford's Value Meter Rating
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