The Morning: Is Hungary a model for Trump?

Plus, Nikki Haley, Benny Gantz and Gabriel García Márquez.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story March 7, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the Hungarian prime minister's visit with Trump — as well as news about Nikki Haley, Benny Gantz and Gabriel García Márquez. Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister. Denes Erdos/Associated Press Orban in Florida Tomorrow in Florida, Donald Trump will host Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, whom Trump often praises. "He is a very great leader, a very strong man," Trump has said. "Some people don't like him because he's too strong." In a recent newsletter, I spoke with some of my colleagues covering Trump's campaign about what a second term might look like. Another way to understand how he may govern is to examine his affinity for Orban. In today's newsletter, I talk to Andrew Higgins, who writes about Hungary as The Times's bureau chief for East and Central Europe. Tucker as a model David: People often describe Orban as autocratic. But he's not a ruler who jails or kills his opponents. Can you describe how he suppresses dissent? Andrew: Hungary under Prime Minister Orban is far from being a police state like Russia or Belarus. As an opposition legislator said to me last week in Budapest, it is more of a "propaganda state" in which Orban's governing party, Fidesz, controls the media landscape. Orban does not jail his opponents or have them beaten up the way Vladimir Putin does, but he has relentlessly squeezed the space available for critical voices by getting business cronies to buy up independent media and starving the few others of advertising revenue. Fidesz-controlled outlets treat critics as traitors and deviants. He has also funded a raft of friendly research institutes and a university that help flood the zone with pro-government views. When speaking at a 2022 gathering of American conservatives in Budapest, Orban hailed Tucker Carlson as a model of how media should work: "There should be shows like his day and night — or, as you say, 24/7." In Hungary, that goal has been achieved. David: Orban originally won a democratic election. But he has also changed the rules to stay in power. How so? Andrew: He is a master of playing democracy against itself. Orban always presents himself as representing the democratic will of the Hungarian people. That boast is in some ways justified: His party has won four general elections since 2010, and he has been in power longer than any democratically elected E.U. leader now in office. But the playing field is far from even (as this Times article explains). Orban's party, Fidesz, has gerrymandered. It has allowed voters to register in districts where they don't live. It spies on government critics. Fidesz also uses the government to shape and skew public opinion. One example: "national consultations," pseudo-democratic exercises in which citizens are sent questionnaires with loaded questions. The government recently announced that 99 percent of Hungarians rejected the E.U.'s policy on immigration. The question, however, asked people whether they wanted "migrant ghettos" in Hungary. Most people didn't return the questionnaire, but Fidesz has trumpeted the result on billboards. The message is that the government represents the will of all but a tiny minority of the people — and which side do you want to be on? Mavericks vs. 'boring' David: Ideologically, what do Trump and Orban have in common? And do they have any big disagreements? Andrew: Their affinity with each other is more stylistic than ideological. They share a "let's just rock the boat" contrarianism. "I like mavericks," Orban said a few days ago, explaining why he respects Trump so much. Orban mocked fellow leaders as "more and more boring." Today, their biggest points of policy overlap are immigration and Russia. Both men have homed in on public unease at uncontrolled immigration and the risk of war, possibly a nuclear one, if the West gives Ukraine more weapons. One big issue on which they diverge is China. Orban has put China at the center of his "Eastern Opening," to build tighter ties with Asia. As other countries have soured on China, Hungary has become its last reliable political partner in the E.U. and a destination for huge Chinese investments in electric car and battery factories. David: What do you think Americans mulling the prospect of a second Trump term can learn from Orban's years in power? Andrew: Hungary is a small country with only around 10 million people — and only 34 years of democratic elections — so Orban's model cannot be easily replicated in the United States. The U.S. has stronger independent institutions. In my view, the canary in the coal mine will be media freedom. I've spent years reporting in Russia, Hong Kong, China and now Eastern Europe. And media freedom and pluralism are the first things to go when autocracy takes hold. Journalists, of course, are prone to overstate their own importance, but I was in Moscow when Vladimir Putin came to power. The first clear sign that Russia was taking the path toward today's dictatorship was the Kremlin's assault in 2001 on NTV, then an independent television station. It is now a propaganda bullhorn. Or look at China. Of all the slogans chanted by student protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989, the most persistent — and most unsettling for the Party — was "Press Freedom." Autocratic rulers are afraid of criticism. Related: Orban's goal is to lead a populist and nativist rebellion against Europe's liberal elite. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Election Nikki Haley Ruth Fremson/The New York Times Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential race. She did not endorse Trump. Biden and Trump both courted Haley's voters. "There is a place for them in my campaign," Biden said. Trump wrote that Haley "got TROUNCED" but invited her voters "to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation." Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader who denounced Trump after the Jan. 6 attack, endorsed him. He said Trump had earned "requisite support" among Republicans. Representative Dean Phillips ended his long-shot campaign against Biden. Phillips endorsed the president. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot in Nevada, his campaign said. Democrats fear that Kennedy's independent bid will benefit Trump. Voters — nearly 20 percent of whom dislike both Biden and Trump — must process the reality of a rematch. More on Politics In Montgomery, Ala. Mickey Welsh/The Montgomery Advertiser, via Associated Press Alabama passed legislation to protect I.V.F. It retreated from a state Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos are children. The House voted to fund about half the government through the fall. The measure now heads to the Senate. Biden will give his annual State of the Union address tonight. He honed it with aides — and prepared for Republicans hecklers — for hours. The State of the Union didn't always happen at night, feature guests or have so many partisan disruptions. See how the speech has changed. Gun Violence The gunman who committed Maine's deadliest mass shooting had profound brain damage, a laboratory found. Veterans exposed to repeated blasts have had similar brain damage. The armorer on the Alec Baldwin film "Rust" was convicted of involuntary manslaughter. She loaded a live round into the gun that killed the cinematographer. Israel-Hamas War The Houthis, the Iran-backed militia, claimed responsibility for an attack that killed three people on a commercial ship near Yemen. The Houthis have been targeting ships in solidarity with Hamas for months; these were the first deaths. Hamas has asked for a promise of a permanent cease-fire after a release of all hostages in stages, but Israel has refused, officials said. Benny Gantz, an Israeli cabinet official, is Benjamin Netanyahu's political rival. His trips to the U.S. and Britain show his influence. Russia and Ukraine At Aleksei Navalny's grave. Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock The grave of Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who died last month, has become a pilgrimage site for people to honor — and mourn — his vision of a free Russia. Russian missiles struck Odesa, in southern Ukraine, as Volodymyr Zelensky met with the Greek prime minister there. Ukrainians are aiding their army with crowdfunding and raffles. China U.S. prosecutors charged a former Google engineer with stealing A.I. secrets and uploading them to a company based in Beijing. China installed more solar panels last year than the U.S. ever has. Read more about China's solar ambitions. Chinese companies are spending huge sums advertising to Americans on social media. Other Big Stories Gov. Kathy Hochul will send National Guard troops and state police officers to patrol the New York City subway. Major crimes on the system are up 13 percent this year. Last month was the hottest known February worldwide, the ninth straight month to set a heat record. A man in Germany received 217 Covid vaccine doses over two and a half years. Scientists said he appeared to have no adverse effects — and very robust immunity. Opinions Only the president can decide to launch a nuclear weapon. This level of unchecked power goes against American values, W.J. Hennigan argues. Trump's conquest of the Republican Party matters to every American, the Times editorial board writes. Here are columns by Nicholas Kristof on how red and blue states left students behind and Pamela Paul on poor D.E.I. policies in higher education. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. MORNING READS A honeycreeper.  John Murillo Green honeycreeper: This bird, spotted on a farm in Columbia, exhibits a rare condition known as bilateral gynandromorphism — it is half male, half female. "Crime of the century": DNA testing has revived scrutiny of the Lindbergh baby's kidnapping. Biopics: Many Oscar contenders this year are about real people. How much influence should the subjects have? Lives Lived: Josette Molland joined the French Resistance as a student, survived imprisonment in Nazi forced-labor camps and later painted scenes of the harsh treatment she witnessed there. She died at 100. (See her paintings here.) 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At the Mandarin Oriental this month, the hypnotherapist Malminder Gill is offering sleep consultations, with an option for a private bedside session to help you drift off. "I tiptoe out," Gill said. "I know that sounds really bizarre." More on culture Gabriel García Márquez between his two sons. Steve Pyke/Getty Images Gabriel García Márquez, the Colombian Nobel laureate, wanted his last novel destroyed. His sons are about to publish it. Late night hosts discussed Nikki Haley's exit. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Ryan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne. Prop Stylist: Megan Hedgpeth. Fulfill your carbonara craving with this easy pasta with bacon and eggs. Cook on these skillets. Raise your garden bed with these Lego-like blocks. Get ready for the solar eclipse on April 8. Do these five exercises, even if you hate them. They really are good for you. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was benevolent. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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