An Ignoble Experiment: A quick analysis of the “toss-ups” we’re going after

Lewis,

When election analysts rate a race a "TOSS-UP," it truly means it's anyone's game.

The truth of the matter is (thanks in large part to partisan gerrymandering!) that only a few contests ever make it on a "toss-up" list. So when we saw that a top analyst at Sabato's Crystal Ball rated SIX of the legislative chambers we're targeting this year as toss-ups, we knew it was a big deal.

After those ratings were released, we saw a surge of donations to support this important work. But since we emailed you earlier this month about how critical these races are, we haven't received a donation from you just yet.

We're reaching out because there's still a chance for you to join all the folks who are supporting this work right now. It will go a long way toward turning these "TOSS-UP" chambers into wins for fair maps. Can we count on you to chip in right away?

The expert from Sabato's Crystal Ball listed the following state's legislative chambers as "TOSS-UPs" – so here's a quick analysis of what's a stake in each:

→ Arizona: Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the Arizona legislature, but if we flip just two seats in each, we can flip both the House and Senate and strengthen the state's redistricting process.

→ Michigan: While Democrats hold a trifecta in Michigan, Republicans are trying to take back the House this November. If they do, they could attempt to roll back progress on fair maps by targeting the state's independent redistricting commission.

→ Minnesota: Democrats won a trifecta of their state's government in 2022, but this year, *only* the State House is on the ballot. Republicans only need to flip five seats to flip it back and block all the amazing progress we've seen from the Land of 10,000 Lakes this year.

→ New Hampshire: It's the Republicans who hold a trifecta in New Hampshire — and since mid-cycle Congressional redistricting is permitted in this state, the GOP could choose to rewrite their maps at any given moment. Democrats need to win the legislature to put that possibility of mid-cycle GOP gerrymandering to rest.

→ Pennsylvania: Democrats hold the House and the governor's seat, but Republicans control the Senate. If we can protect the House majority *and* flip the Senate, we will achieve another Democratic trifecta.

Your urgent donation to the NDRC will help us ramp up our efforts in these critical races — and more across the country — so we can lock in some major victories for democracy this November and beyond.
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— NDRC HQ

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