The Morning: Kamala Harris’s strengths and weaknesses

Plus, NATO, Beryl in Texas and camel racing.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 9, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering a potential Kamala Harris candidacy — as well as NATO, Beryl in Texas and camel racing. Vice President Kamala Harris Kenny Holston/The New York Times Next in line The debate over President Biden's fitness for another term has thrust Vice President Kamala Harris into the spotlight, and I want to use today's newsletter to consider what kind of nominee she might be. Harris's supporters frequently argue that criticisms of her political skills stem from racism and sexism. And it's certainly true that racism and sexism infect American life and affect American politics. But this argument can nonetheless do a Harris a disservice. Politicians often get better at their jobs, and become stronger candidates, by listening to criticism and addressing their weaknesses. Barack Obama became less professorial and long-winded, for example. Biden and Ronald Reagan each became somewhat more careful about telling exaggerated stories. George H.W. Bush and Al Gore tried to loosen up. If Harris and her aides buy the notion that most criticism of her merely reflects her race and sex — which are immutable qualities — they will lose an opportunity to help her become more effective in the event that she becomes the Democratic nominee. For now, it's unclear whether Biden's critics will succeed in pushing him out of the race. Yesterday, he pushed back aggressively. Yet the possibility remains strong enough that Harris — who would immediately become the favorite to replace him — is worthy of attention. A successful prosecutor Harris in 2004, when she was district attorney in San Francisco. Paul Chinn/, via San Francisco Chronicle, via Associated Press Both Harris's biggest strengths and her biggest weaknesses have their roots in her background as a California prosecutor. Let's start with her strengths. In all, Harris spent more than a quarter-century as a local and state prosecutor, and she compiled an accomplished record — on crime reduction, consumer protection and more. Prosecutors succeed by making more persuasive arguments than their opponents in a combative setting. So it makes sense that Harris's signature moments as a national figure have occurred in similar settings. In the Senate, she developed a reputation as a sharp questioner of witnesses, including Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominees. During the 2020 presidential campaign, she won her debate against Vice President Mike Pence, polls showed. Four years earlier, by contrast, Pence beat Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton's running mate. In a future debate against Trump, Harris seems like a much stronger option than Biden — and probably stronger than some other potential Democratic nominees. It's easy to imagine her hammering Trump for his role in the overturning of Roe v. Wade and his lawless approach to the presidency. These criticisms could then become central to a presidential campaign that she ran largely against Trump. Biden had hoped to run such a campaign, as my colleague Reid Epstein points out, but Biden's jarringly weak debate performance has made that much harder. The vision thing Harris's background also helps explain her biggest shortcomings as a national politician. She has repeatedly struggled to lay out her vision for the country and explain to voters how she would improve their lives. Politicians who've risen to prominence as governors or members of Congress spend years honing such messages. Prosecutors don't. "She's a very poor communicator when the parameters are quite wide," Elaina Plott Calabro, a writer at The Atlantic who spent months profiling Harris, recently said on The Ezra Klein Show. The evidence is abundant. Harris's 2019 book, "The Truths We Hold," was even more laden with platitudes than most books by politicians. Once the campaign began, she sometimes seemed unable to describe own policies, especially on Medicare, and her poll numbers were so weak that she dropped out before the Iowa caucus. As vice president, she has made meandering statements mocked by both conservative media and "The Daily Show." Part of the problem may be that Harris has rarely had to win over the swing voters who decide presidential elections. She comes from California, where Democrats dominate. In her only Senate campaign, no Republican even qualified for the general election; Harris beat another Democrat in the final round. She can seem more comfortable speaking the language of elite liberalism than making the arguments that help Democrats win tough races — like emphasizing pocketbook issues, questioning global trade and praising border security. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican senator, made a telling comment on CBS News this weekend. Graham predicted that Harris would have the advantage of being a "very vigorous" nominee but the disadvantage of being to Biden's left and having favored Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. There is one intriguing exception, however: Harris won prosecutor elections in California partly by promising to be tough on crime. She called it "smart on crime." It was the kind of moderate message that has long helped Democrats (including Biden, Obama and Bill Clinton) win elections. If she can persuade voters that she is less of a San Francisco liberal than her critics claim, she would become a more formidable presidential candidate. The bottom line In a traditional primary, I would consider Harris to be an underdog against Democrats with more impressive electoral records, like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. But there will be no traditional primary this summer, even if Biden drops out. Harris would start any informal nomination process with large advantages. And the combination of Biden's glaring weaknesses with Harris's strengths suggests that she would probably be a stronger candidate this year than he is. If she gets the chance, she will face a task that few previous presidential nominees have: trying to develop a sharp new political message in the final months before Election Day. Related: Harris is expected to speak in Nevada today, a battleground state. The attention will be intense. More on Biden Biden is defiant. He wrote to congressional Democrats reiterating that he would stay in the race and dared critics to "challenge me at the convention" in remarks on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." Biden told nervous fund-raisers and donors to focus on beating Trump. "We're done talking about the debate," he said. Still, some congressional Democrats expressed skepticism about his candidacy. Representative Adam Smith of Washington said Biden should step aside. Others in Congress are supporting the president, including senators Bernie Sanders and John Fetterman. The Washington Post has a list. Black Democrats are also rallying around him. A Parkinson's expert visited the White House eight times in eight months, including at least one meeting with Biden's physician. The White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, dodged questions about Biden's health and refused to talk about the Parkinson's expert's visits. The briefing room devolved into shouting. More on the race Whitmer, Michigan's governor, said she wouldn't run for president this year even if Biden stepped aside, calling such speculation "a distraction." Trump backed a draft Republican Party platform that softens the party's position on social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage but is more nationalistic. Biden's campaign released an ad blaming Trump for the end of Roe v. Wade, part of a $50 million ad blitz in battleground states. THE LATEST NEWS NATO Summit Dozens of world leaders are gathering in Washington today for a NATO meeting, celebrating the alliance's 75th anniversary. The summit was planned to project confidence in NATO. But uncertainty about the U.S. election looms over the gathering. Trump's potential return is a challenge for the alliance's incoming secretary general, Mark Rutte. Read more about him. War in Ukraine Rescuers clear rubble from the site of the attack in Kyiv. Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times A Russian missile destroyed Ukraine's largest children's hospital, in Kyiv. The strike was part of a nationwide bombardment by Russia that killed at least 38 people. U.S. officials believe Russia is unlikely to make significant gains in the coming months, as its poorly trained troops face Ukrainian defenses reinforced by Western weapons. Weather Hurricane Beryl caused flooding and damage on the coast of Texas.  Meridith Kohut for The New York Times Tropical Storm Beryl hit Houston, killing at least four people and knocking out power for more than two million customers across Texas. A strange side-effect in Houston: The call of Gulf Coast toads rang out from flooded streets. A heat wave in the Western U.S. is breaking temperature records: It reached 124 degrees in Palm Springs, Calif., and 120 in Las Vegas. Climate disasters have driven up home insurance costs. But certain parts of the country — especially the middle — pay far more than others. (This tool lets you see home insurance costs in your area.) Other Big Stories In Mexico City. Juan Arredondo for The New York Times Thousands of miles, eight countries: See photos that capture the journey of one family trying to get to the U.S. A $1 billion gift from Michael Bloomberg to Johns Hopkins University will allow most of the school's medical students to attend for free. Columbia University punished three deans for exchanging text messages that school officials said "disturbingly touched on ancient antisemitic tropes." Autistic children appear to carry distinct markers in their gut bacteria, a study found, offering a possible means for more objective diagnoses. Opinions The only way to take Biden out of the race without giving Trump an advantage is to give voters a chance to choose a new candidate, James Carville writes. Europe and the U.S. see Ukraine through the prism of two world wars. They need to look beyond those analogies, Jaroslaw Kuisz and Karolina Wigura write. Here are columns by Paul Krugman on Biden's candidacy and Jamelle Bouie on Trump. The Games Sale. Offer won't last. Games for relaxation. Games for concentration. We have them all. For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription and enjoy new puzzles every day. MORNING READS In Portugal. Matilde Viegas "Grief literate": How a death doula with a Baroque mansion in Portugal throws a dinner party. Handcycling: An author lost the use of his legs 12 years ago. This spring, he rode 50 miles through the high desert. Health: Do fiber supplements offer the same benefits as fiber from food? Ask Vanessa: "Are you ever too old for a bikini?" Lives Lived: Jane McAlevey was a fierce labor organizer and scholar who trained thousands of workers across the globe to take charge of their unions and fight economic inequality. She died at 59. SPORTS Basketball: Team USA is raving about 17-year-old Cooper Flagg, who will play at Duke this fall. Olympics: The United States also named its men's soccer roster for the Paris Games. Wimbledon: Novak Djokovic accused the crowd of "disrespect" during his win over Holger Rune. ARTS AND IDEAS Some men are opting for thigh-baring shorts.  Dolly Faibyshev for The New York Times Short shorts have become a popular summertime staple for men. The trend started, in part, thanks to widely circulated photos of the Irish actor Paul Mescal sporting micro inseams. Another reason for their popularity: Women are swooning over them on social media. Read more about the rise in inseams. More on culture In Saudi Arabia. Saudi Camel Racing Federation The hip-hop producer Swizz Beatz has made a name for himself in Saudi Arabia's camel-racing scene. A new documentary about the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders displays their preparation for performing and the unfairness of their industry. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Use all your fresh vegetables in this pasta. Send your kids to college with these items. Protect your face with good sunscreens. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were annihilation and inhalation. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. 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