Opinion Today: How the election may shape up, in graphs

A look at how we got here — and what's still to come.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 2, 2024 New York Times Opinion By Quoctrung Bui Deputy Editor, Opinion Graphics As a member of the Times Opinion graphics department, I share the privilege of presenting complex ideas and arguments visually to our readers. Sometimes it's difficult — the story is too abstract or there is too little data to work with. This presidential election is the opposite kind of story — a story so materially complicated and so rich with data that it practically calls out to be made sense of through a visual medium. To break down the paths to victory for Kamala Harris, Donald Trump and (earlier this year) President Biden, for example, we made several Electoral College interactives with the Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik. In 2020, President Biden won by an extremely narrow margin in key swing states — less than 45,000 votes, according to some estimates — so we worked with the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini to explore the microcommunities that could decide the election. With political ad spending at historic levels this cycle, my graphics colleague Gus Wezerek showed us how Democrats dominated the airwaves in his unique analysis of 3.5 million political TV ads that aired this fall. Finally, we explored the gender gap in this election, which may end up being the largest of any presidential contest. As the pollsters Celinda Lake and Amanda Iovino argue, this gender gap is being driven largely by education — with college-educated women on one side and non-college-educated men on the other. We hope you will join us for much more analysis as Election Day unfolds. THE ELECTION, THROUGH DATA Why Trump Has a More Plausible Path to the Presidency, in 19 Maps A Democratic strategist explains how a deadlocked presidential race may play out in the Electoral College. By Doug Sosnik Forget Swing States. It's These 21 Microcommunities That Could Decide the Election. A look at the political microcommunities that could decide the 2024 presidential election. By Patrick Ruffini Democrats Won the Ad War. Will It Be Enough? Here's what we learned after analyzing 3.7 million election ads. By Gus Wezerek A Democratic and a Republican Pollster Agree: This Is the Fault Line That Decides the Election How college-educated women and non-college-educated men are defining the contours of the 2024 presidential election. By Celinda Lake and Amanda Iovino THE WEEK IN BIG IDEAS Damon Winter/The New York Times Guest Essay Anita Hill: The Smearing of Kamala Harris The insults hurled at Ms. Harris are a reminder of how Republican senators tried to shame me when I challenged Clarence Thomas's fitness. By Anita Hill For Day of the Dead, a Burst of Flowers to Honor the Departed During the Day of the Dead, the cempasúchil, or marigold, is believed to guide spirits back home. In Mexico City, people who lost a loved one to Covid use the flower to honor their dead. By César Martínez Barba Mike Osborne for The New York Times Guest Essay Climate Change Should Make You Rethink Homeownership Renting is quickly becoming a better way for many people to enjoy high-risk places with much less financial baggage. By Benjamin Keys Patricia Voulgaris Guest Essay You Might Consider Praying It's what can we do when we don't know what to do. By Sara Sherbill Illustration by Owen Gent. Guest Essay The Myth of the Mad Artist Is Harmful. I Should Know. The presumption of emotional instability has made it not easier but more difficult for artists to be forthright about our mental health. By Jonathan Biss We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. Games Here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle and Spelling Bee. If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Forward this newsletter to friends to share ideas and perspectives that will help inform their lives. They can sign up here. Do you have feedback? Email us at opiniontoday@nytimes.com. If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other issues, visit our Help Page or contact The Times. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Opinion Today newsletter from The New York Times. To stop receiving Opinion Today, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018