Good morning. We're covering next week's races for Congress — as well as farmers in Gaza, Russian mercenaries and pigeon racing.
A divided or united capital?Every president of the past 30 years has taken office with his party in control of both the Senate and the House. That combination has allowed presidents to pass major legislation early in their terms — including deficit reduction by Bill Clinton, tax cuts by George W. Bush and Donald Trump, an expansion of health insurance by Barack Obama, and a major climate law by Joe Biden. The next president may end the streak. Even if Kamala Harris wins, a Democratic-controlled Senate looks improbable. If Trump wins, his party has a better chance to enjoy a so-called trifecta — controlling the White House, Senate and House of Representatives — but it isn't assured. "Control of the House is on a knife's edge," Maya Miller, who's been covering the campaign for The Times, told me. In today's newsletter, my colleagues and I will preview the race for congressional control. We'll also explain what a divided government might get done and what each party hopes to accomplish if it does win a trifecta. The Senate
The Senate math is daunting for Democrats. Their caucus now has 51 senators, meaning they can lose only one seat and retain control in a Harris presidency. (The vice president breaks 50-50 Senate ties.) And Democrats are vulnerable in several states. West Virginia is all but lost because Joe Manchin is retiring and other Democrats tend to lose badly there. In Montana, Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent, trailed by eight points in the most recent Times/Siena College poll. A few other Senate Democrats, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, are in tight races. To keep Senate control, Democrats would need to win all those races but West Virginia — or pull off at least one upset elsewhere. Their best hopes are in either Texas, where Colin Allred, a House Democrat, is only a few points behind Ted Cruz in the polls, or Nebraska, where Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic who's running as an independent, is trying to unseat Deb Fischer, the Republican incumbent. Osborn's views on the economy and abortion suggest he will often side with Democrats. (To understand why the Nebraska race is close, I recommend Maya's recent story — or this feisty Osborn ad.) The House
The party that wins the presidential race is also likely to control the House. But the race is so close that the presidency and the House could go in opposite directions for the first time since 1988. How can Republicans keep their House majority even if Harris wins? Partly by taking districts in deep-blue states like California and New York. Some voters there have been unhappy with these states' "leftward lurch," as my colleagues Nicholas Fandos and Catie Edmondson put it. Education, immigration and criminal justice are among the disputed issues. And how can Democrats win the House even if Trump wins? One, Harris may win the popular vote even if she loses the Electoral College, which could help Democratic candidates. Two, incumbent House Republicans must defend 17 seats in districts that Biden won four years ago (such as a suburban district in Orange County, Calif., home to many Vietnamese Americans). Only five House Democrats are running in districts that Trump won. "All five of them are appealing heavily to working-class people and separating themselves from the Democratic Party on tricky issues like immigration and policing," Maya said. Among those five: a rural Maine district that she recently profiled. Three scenarios for 2025In a divided government, sweeping legislation is unlikely. Trump probably couldn't pass the large tax cut he wants, nor could Harris pass abortion protections. Either would need to pursue the least ambitious agenda of any new president in decades. Of course, bills would still pass. Possibilities include a compromise extension of some Trump tax cuts (which are set to expire in December) and a border-security bill modeled after the bipartisan plan from this past summer. If there is a Democratic trifecta, Harris could accomplish a lot on economic policy (because many budget-related provisions are not subject to a filibuster and can pass with 51 votes). Democrats could extend tax cuts for the middle class and the poor while raising taxes on the rich, for instance. They could also pass Harris's proposed housing subsidies. A big question would be whether the party would vote to scrap the filibuster for other bills, such as on abortion access or statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Under a Republican trifecta, the priorities would likely include large tax cuts; a tough immigration bill; expansions of oil-and-gas production; restrictions on transgender rights and diversity programs; and reductions in aid to Ukraine and other allies. Catie Edmondson, who covers Congress, said that she expected the recent infighting among House Republicans to continue, which would complicate their ability to pass some bills. Trump's proposed tariffs might be one area of disagreement; China policy (on which many Republicans now seem more hawkish than Trump) could be another. Overall, though, Republicans seem poised to get much more done than at the start of Trump's first term, when much of the party was still critical of him. As Carl Hulse, The Times's chief Washington correspondent, writes, "This time, Republicans would be much better prepared to take advantage of their consolidated power." To go deeper, I recommend Carl's preview of a potential Republican trifecta.
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2024/11/01
The Morning: A congressional preview
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