Whole Hog Politics: Senate primaries take shape

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By Chris Stirewalt  |  Friday, August 1 By Chris Stirewalt Friday, August 1 © Grant Halverson, Associated Press Senate primaries take shape, adding a glimmer of hope for Dems On the menu: Broad consensus on who to deport and not to deport; A Texas tornado for midterms; Dems bounce back on party affiliation; Mamdani reckons with anti-police past; Monkeying around We are a long way from the midterms — so far, that when we think about control of the House of Representatives, there's not much point in granular analysis. Even with the Texas gerrymander (much more on that below), how the House shakes out will depend mostly on the mood of the country in the weeks before November 2026. If President Trump's approval rating in 15 months is as low or lower than it is right now, you can expect substantial Democratic gains. If he gets back to close to even with voters, then Republicans will have a chance to hold on to their super-slim majority. In that way, the House result is a reflection of everything happening in American public life: 435 seats shaped by economic sentiment, foreign policy, scandal, etc. When we get closer, we can start looking at the handful of races that really could tip either way. But for now, just keep an eye on presidential approval. It remains the best indicator of a party's midterm performance. Given how few Americans even know the name of their representative in Congress, it's probably best to stick with the broad, long view until we get closer. That's not the case in the Senate, where candidate quality matters so much more. Think of it this way: Fewer than 4 percent of House members represent a district won by the presidential candidate from the opposing party (16 of 435), while 11 of 100 senators can say the same thing. We saw lots of ticket splitting in Senate races last year and midterm years provide even greater chances for swing states to show a little political independence. Next year there are, in the most liberal reading, nine Senate races that could be competitive. Democrats would need to flip four of the five Republican seats and hold all three of the seats the blue team is defending to take control of the upper chamber. Democrats' worries include vulnerable incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and three seats left vacant by Democratic retirements in Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota. Republicans, meanwhile, are fretting over an open seat in North Carolina, vulnerable incumbent Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a possible retirement by Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa, a special election for the remainder of Vice President Vance's Senate term in Ohio, and a wild and wacky primary fight in Texas where Sen. John Cornyn is in the fight of his life. Another way to think about the Senate is that the size and nature of the map won't really be known until next spring and summer when all the primaries shake out. Some are already clear. Democrats got their man, former Gov. Roy Cooper, in North Carolina. He's got a clear path to the nomination and the best shot for flipping a Republican-held seat as the GOP lacks a likely nominee with any kind of statewide presence. In Maine, though, the Democrats have so far been unable to coax former Gov. Janet Mills into the race against Collins, who, for her part, remains just a little cagy about seeking a sixth term. If Mills gets in or Collins gets out, this will quickly become a top opportunity for Democrats. Michigan is looking increasingly good for Republicans, as former Rep. Mike Rogers seems to have a lock on the nomination. Rogers came close in 2024 and is hoping a second run will do the trick, as Democrats are divided in their primary. If Rep. Haley Stevens (D) makes it through, the race will probably be a referendum on Trump, which is bad news for Rogers. But, if one of the fringier candidates gets through, Rogers can run to the middle. It's a similar story in New Hampshire and Minnesota, but with a happier tone for Democrats. With open seats, races tend to revert to the overall partisanship of the state and both the Granite State and the Land of 10,000 Lakes are blue in hue, especially in midterm years. Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota and Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire aren't locks for Democrats, but that's the trajectory so far. Iowa depends entirely on whether Ernst opts to run for a third term. After she turned in an anemic fundraising total for the second quarter of the year, Senate Republicans began expressing concern that she might be packing it in. With her longtime ally, Gov. Kim Reynolds, not seeking reelection, there may be change in the air in Iowa. But if Ernst stays put, she would be very hard to beat. It's a similar story, but in the other direction, in Ohio. Sen. Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor, was appointed to Vance's seat. He's running for the remainder of the term and, having been elected four times statewide before, he's a formidable candidate. But, if former Sen. Sherrod Brown decides to make another run, the race could get interesting. Brown lost his seat in 2024 but might fare better in a midterm climate. Whether Democrats have a chance to retake the Senate, or even to grind down the GOP majority to a place where the handful of Republican MAGA dissenters like Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska could effectively block legislation, comes down to the primaries in two red states: Texas and Georgia. Both states should be relatively easy wins for Republicans, but in both cases, candidate quality could be a problem. It's a replay of the 2022 dysfunction in which Trump and his team are at odds with state leaders. Cornyn should be on a glide path to another term in Texas, even with former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred making another Senate run. But at first, it looked like Cornyn wouldn't be able to survive his own primary, as challenger Attorney General Ken Paxton took a commanding lead in primary polls. Then Paxton was socked with a bombshell divorce filing by the wife who had endured many public indignities to only turn around and leave him just as the campaign was heating up. That and new filings that show some funny business in Paxton's property taxes suggest Cornyn has a better chance to hold on. This should be good news for Republicans, but Trump & Co. seem determined to beat Cornyn, even if it means risking the seat next fall. News that Trump World may be trying to recruit Trump's former White House physician turned Texas congressman, Ronny Jackson, comes as a balm to Democrats worried that Cornyn might escape unscathed. This looks like a pure vendetta play, and potentially a costly one. Even riskier for Republicans, though, is what's going on in Georgia. Gov. Brian Kemp opted against challenging Ossoff, who is only in the Senate because of Trump's previous meddling in Georgia. The Democrat won a 2021 runoff amid Trump's effort to overturn the state's 2020 election results. So Ossoff should be easy pickings for the GOP. Unless … Kemp seems to be lining up behind Derek Dooley, the former University of Tennessee football coach and son a legendary Georgia Bulldogs coach. The president and his team are reportedly very unhappy about this, setting up a potential clash ahead of the May 19 primary. A bad pick cost Republicans a Georgia Senate seat in 2022 with Herschel Walker. Democrats are hoping to run the same playbook in 2026. Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions & amplifications: WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com. If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be publicized, please specify.   NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE Average Approval 41.4% Average Disapproval 54.8% Net Score: -13.4 points [Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos 40 percent approve-56 percent disapprove; Emerson 46 percent approve-47 percent disapprove; Gallup 37 percent approve-58 percent disapprove; Fox News Channel 46 percent approve-54 percent disapprove; American Research Group 38 percent approve-59 percent disapprove] STRONG SUPPORT AMONG HISPANIC VOTERS FOR DEPORTING CRIMINALS Which of the following comes closest to your view on illegal immigration? Should the United States … Among all registered voters Deport all illegal immigrants: 29 percent Deport only those charged with other crimes: 59 percent Deport none: 11 percent Among Hispanic registered voters Deport all illegal immigrants: 15 percent Deport only those charged with other crimes: 60 percent Deport none: 23 percent [Fox News Poll of 1,000 registered voters, July 18-21] ON THE SIDE A corps of discovery for Sacagawea NYT Magazine: "Sacagawea long ago left the realm of the apolitical dead. Over the years, she has been pressed into service as an avatar of patient humility or assertive feminism, of American expansionism or Indigenous rights, of Jeffersonian derring-do or native wisdom. Her face is on U.S. currency, her name has been affixed to a caldera on Venus and there are statues of her spread throughout the nation … though to the federal government at the time, she was closer to being an alien enemy. The Hidatsas' portrait of Sacagawea is both richer and more ambiguous than the one found in standard histories. By adding decades to her life, they have changed its meaning: The journey to the Pacific, rather than the whole of her existence, becomes a two-year blip in a story that stretches across the 19th century, from the opening of the Western frontier to the Civil War and beyond. Almost all those years were spent back where Lewis and Clark found her, among the Hidatsa." PRIME CUTS A Texas-sized gerrymander aims to keep House GOP in power: The Texas Tribune: "Texas GOP lawmakers released their first draft of the state's new congressional map Wednesday, proposing revamped district lines that attempt to flip five Democratic seats in next year's midterm elections. The new map targets Democratic U.S. House members in the Austin, Dallas and Houston metro areas and in South Texas. The draft, unveiled by state Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, will likely change before the final map is approved by both chambers and signed by Gov. Greg Abbott. Democrats have said they might try to thwart the process by fleeing the state. This unusual mid-decade redistricting comes after a pressure campaign waged by President Donald Trump's political team in the hopes of padding Republicans' narrow majority in the U.S. House. Currently, Republicans hold 25 of Texas' 38 House seats. Trump carried 27 of those districts in 2024, including those won by Democratic U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen." Newsom vowed reprisal, but California law makes it tricky: San Francisco Chronicle: "To counter Texas redistricting, Gov. Gavin Newsom faces a tight timeline to convince lawmakers to act. But many won't even say where they stand on the issue. Newsom first raised the prospect of redrawing California's congressional maps in favor of Democrats three weeks ago as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott moved to do the same in his state in favor of Republicans. But while Abbott has been able to move forward with his redistricting efforts unfettered, Newsom faces more roadblocks. In most states, including in Texas, state lawmakers approve congressional maps, giving politicians power to shape districts in favor of their own political parties. But California voters took that power away from the state Legislature in 2010 and handed it to an independent redistricting commission." Dems cry foul over White House orchestration: The Hill: "Senate Democrats are pressing the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) to investigate whether White House officials have violated the Hatch Act in their push for Texas and other Republican states to undertake a middecade redistricting effort. In a letter dated Tuesday and addressed to OSC senior counsel Charles Baldis, the senators pointed to President Trump's July 15 remarks from the White House, when he addressed Texas's redistricting push and "stated that the purpose of the effort is to draw new district lines where 'I think we'll get five' Republican House seats to replace current Democratic members of Congress.' The lawmakers also pointed to reporting that senior administration officials met with Texas House Republicans 'to discuss a White House push to redraw its congressional map ahead of the midterms,' according to the letter." SHORT ORDER Democrats retake lead on partisan affiliation — Gallup After shooter's rampage, Mamdani tries to reframe 2020 claim that the NYPD was "racist, anti-queer & a major threat to public safety."  — NYT Nadler draws heat from 26-year-old primary challenger — The Hill Voters say Republicans and Democrats can't agree on basic facts — Pew Research Center Kamala Harris passes on California governor bid — The Hill Exit strategy: Hegseth said to be exploring run for office in Tennessee — NBC News TABLE TALK Coming to a campaign ad near you ... "But, in a way, it is a backdoor for privatizing Social Security." — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking at an event hosted by MAGA outlet Breitbart about the government savings accounts for kids created by the Trump budget bill. MAIL BAG "Great analysis, Chris, though you were on another well deserved holiday as you were MIA on your Sunday show on NewsNation. Oh, I hope [Eliana Johnson] is doing well, has she delivered?  We look forward to the [Ink Stained] Wretches back together. Again welcome back and I hope you all are enjoying the dog days of August." — Helen Camba, Falls Church, Va. Ms. Camba, I was about to take issue with the "another" bit about my holidays, when I realized that I have, indeed, been away quite a bit this year — at least by my own standards. But, in my defense, there was a wedding and a honeymoon this spring, most worthy causes for celebration. I promise, though, that I'll be on set and in your inbox through the rest of the summer and fall. And, yes, my fellow former Wretch, Eliana, did have her second child. Mother and baby are very well indeed. As for a resumption of the podcast, I think we may have heard the last of it. But there are new projects in the pipeline, about which I will dutifully keep you informed. All best, c FOR DESSERT Monkey business WSJ: "At a cliff-side temple on the tropical island of Bali, an unexpected group of criminals is running one of the world's most sophisticated scam operations. … Primate researchers have found that the macaques steal belongings to use as currency to trade with humans for food. Some monkeys can distinguish between objects we highly value (smartphones, prescription glasses, wallets) and those we don't (hats, flip flops, hair clips)—and will barter accordingly, according to a University of Lethbridge team that spent years filming the macaques and analyzing hundreds of hours of footage. In other words, the monkeys have 'unprecedented economic decision-making processes,' the researchers wrote in a 2021 academic paper. … Many cases require the help of the temple's monkey handlers, called 'pawang,' who negotiate with the furry hostage-takers. They offer fruits such as bananas, mangos, rambutan and mangosteen in exchange for the stolen items. In rare cases, they use raw chicken eggs, highly coveted by the monkeys." EMAIL US! Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Meera Sehgal, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Meera Sehgal contributed to this report. Privacy Policy   |   View in Browser    |   Manage Subscriptions Sign Up for Other Newsletters   |   Unsubscribe  400 N Capitol Street NW Suite 650, Washington, DC 20001 Copyright © 1998 - 2025 Nexstar Media Inc.   |   All Rights Reserved.