Conservatives are not at the center of the government shutdown that looks set to begin at midnight.
But they are poised to make it more difficult to end if it begins.
Democrats are demanding that Republicans address health care priorities as they reject the GOP-crafted, "clean" seven-week stopgap.
In particular, they want to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced subsidies that expire at the end of the year.
The clearest way out of the shutdown is a solid GOP vow to discuss extending the subsidies. Plenty of Democrats might agree to keep the government open temporarily if the GOP agrees to discuss the issue.
But Republican leaders, for now, are rejecting the idea of negotiating on anything as they aim to jam Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). They hope he will fold and extend funding without extracting any concessions, as he did in March.
If a shutdown does begin on Wednesday morning, however, pressure could quickly grow on Republican leaders to engage in talks over the ObamaCare tax credits.
If that happens, fiscal hawks and free-market conservatives both inside and outside Congress could make it very politically difficult for GOP leaders to negotiate on the tax credits — complicating the path out of the shutdown's political thicket.
I broke the news last week that 35 conservative and free-market leaders signed a letter to President Trump telling him to let the tax credits expire — and to not extend them in wake of the Democrats' shutdown demands. It argued the pandemic-era enhancements were "always supposed to be temporary," that they raise premiums and that they are "bankrupting our country."
Signatories include some heavyweights in the space, such as Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform; David McIntosh, president of Club For Growth; and Brent Gardner, chief government affairs officer at Americans for Prosperity. These are figures and organizations who have been key to boosting the GOP agenda.
Advancing American Freedom, the group founded by former Vice President Mike Pence, added its voice to the chorus on Tuesday, circulating a memo warning against extending the tax credits. "The American People did not send Republicans to Washington to 'save Obamacare' by continuing to promulgate the Democrats' failure that is the Affordable Care Act," it says.
There is reason to think there could be room for negotiation on extending or reforming the credits.
Multiple Trump pollsters have warned in recent months that failing to preserve the tax credits — which could result in major cost increases for consumers — could threaten Republicans' hopes of keeping the House majority.
John McLaughlin wrote in Townhall in August that failing to preserve the credits would "risk significant political consequences." A July poll from Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward commissioned by Plymouth Union Public Advocacy, which supports extending the credits, found doing so could give Republicans in swing districts an edge.
Some Republicans in Congress are supportive of extending the tax credits, with Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) leading a bill to extend the subsidies for one year, until the end of 2026, to give lawmakers time to find a "reasonable approach."
And there are signs Republican leaders could be willing to strike a deal.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on Fox News's "Sunday Morning Futures" that he is "not in favor" of the tax credits, but he has not closed the door on negotiating over them at a later date. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he is "certainly open" to negotiating the tax credits separately from government funding.
But opposition to ObamaCare is ingrained in the Republican Party's DNA.
And opposition to extending the tax credits in the House GOP, which I cover closely, goes way beyond the typical hard-line conservative members of the House Freedom Caucus who are typically the main drivers of pressure on GOP leaders.
Yes, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) is warning GOP leaders to not cut a deal to extend the tax credits: "Do. Not. Blink." he posted over the weekend. But Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, also tells me he is opposed to extending the tax credits.
One GOP leadership source told me there is less concern than some might expect over the link between the subsidies and next year's midterms.
If caving to vote for a clean funding stopgap puts Schumer at risk with the left wing of the Democratic Party, agreeing to any ACA tax credit extensions could put GOP leaders at risk with the right of their party.
The bottom line: Lawmakers are expecting a shutdown, and unless Democrats cave or Trump puts his thumb on the scale in favor of negotiating on some of Democrats' asks, it's hard to see a way out of it just yet.
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