| TQ Morning Briefing | Shutdown Countdown: Markets Balance Jobs, Inflation, and Fed Uncertainty | | | | | | Good morning Traders and Quants. Wall Street began the week on solid footing, with equities climbing broadly Monday even as investors eyed looming risks from both Washington and the labor market. Mid-caps outpaced both large and small caps, while sector performance leaned on strength in consumer discretionary and technology. Energy and communications lagged as oil slumped nearly 4% on OPEC+ supply signals. The S&P and Nasdaq managed to extend their September rally, though volumes thinned into the close, suggesting traders are reluctant to press too far ahead of this week's catalysts. | Treasuries firmed, with the 10-year yield slipping to 4.14% from last week's high near 4.20%, though still comfortably above its early-September low of 4.0%. The dollar softened modestly against major peers, a break from its recent run higher. In commodities, gold surged to yet another record above $3,850, drawing fuel from both Fed cut expectations and safe-haven demand tied to the shutdown drama. Oil was the counterpoint, retreating sharply after reports of OPEC+ boosting November output and renewed exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region. The cross-asset picture reinforces the theme: equities are pressing higher, but under the surface defensive hedges are gaining traction. |
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| | | | Traders face a heavy slate this week. Labor data dominate, with JOLTs openings out today, ADP Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and the September payrolls report Friday — though BLS warned no release if the government closes. Consensus sees 50,000 jobs added in September, up from August's paltry 22,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Wage growth is expected to remain at 3.7% y/y, still outrunning inflation and providing support for spending. If realized, that mix would signal a cooling but not collapsing labor market, and potentially give the Fed room for another cut this year. | The bigger near-term swing factor is politics. Unless Congress and the White House strike a last-minute deal, government funding expires tonight, triggering a partial shutdown on October 1. Prediction markets put odds near 70%. The House passed a stopgap, but Senate Democrats are pushing to reverse health care cuts embedded in the summer tax package. Traders are debating the impact - most shutdowns in recent memory have been short-lived with limited economic damage, but this one comes at a delicate juncture for both inflation expectations and consumer confidence. Markets are mostly brushing it off for now, yet thin liquidity and extended positioning mean a prolonged impasse could rattle sentiment quickly. |  | Bloomberg @business |  |
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A government shutdown could provide further fuel for the rally in gold and weigh on the dollar, though history shows that stocks and bonds are unlikely to suffer bloomberg.com/news/newslette… | | | 10:35 AM • Sep 30, 2025 | | | | | | 25 Likes 4 Retweets | 2 Replies |
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| | | | The gap between markets and policymakers is widening. Fed funds futures are pricing a near 90% chance of an October cut and 70% odds of another in December, but several regional Fed presidents pushed back Monday. St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem warned that while he's open to easing, the Fed must "tread cautiously" with inflation still at 2.7% headline and 2.9% core PCE. Cleveland's Beth Hammack went further, saying the central bank has been "missing our mandate" for 4.5 years and projecting inflation won't return to 2% until 2027. Kansas City's Jeff Schmid echoed that policy is only "slightly restrictive," while Chicago's Austan Goolsbee warned against overreacting to softer payrolls. | Others see room for flexibility. New York Fed's John Williams said officials must avoid "undue harm" to jobs, while Governor Bowman highlighted a fragile labor market. Newly seated Governor Stephen Miran warned that leaving borrowing costs elevated risks "material increases in unemployment." | The split underscores how dependent October's decision will be on incoming data — jobs on Friday, inflation updates later in October — assuming a shutdown doesn't freeze releases. For traders, this standoff means volatility around each datapoint will be amplified: markets are convinced cuts are coming, but officials are reluctant to validate those bets until inflation clearly bends lower. |
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| | | | | Trade Winds & Global Shifts |
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| | | Trump and Netanyahu unveiled a 20-point plan to end the Gaza war, but the fine print shifts nearly all the heavy lifting onto Israel's Arab neighbors. The framework requires Hamas to release all 48 hostages, surrender weapons in exchange for amnesty, and relinquish any role in governing Gaza. In return, Israel maintains a buffer zone along the Egypt border, while the U.S. and Arab partners would provide a stabilization force and train a Palestinian police unit. | For Netanyahu, the optics are favorable. He can claim Israel accepted peace terms aligned with Washington, while any breakdown can be blamed on Arab states or Hamas. That dynamic hands him a political lifeline at home, potentially smoothing the path to reelection if hostages are released before voters head to the polls. Critics inside his coalition warn the concessions—acknowledging eventual Palestinian sovereignty and a role for the Palestinian Authority—could topple the government, but polls suggest broad Israeli support for ending the war under U.S. auspices. | The risks now shift outward. Egypt and Jordan are reluctant to be seen as enforcing Israeli security, and Hamas has branded the plan a surrender. Implementation hurdles could stretch for months, leaving markets to weigh whether the announcement is a genuine turning point or another round of geopolitical theater. | Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick declared Taiwan should only produce "half" of U.S. chips going forward, reinforcing Washington's push to onshore supply chains. On the trade front, new tariffs were rolled out: 10% on lumber, 25% on wooden products, and steeper levies on select imports, adding to the growing mosaic of protectionism. For markets, the mix signals rising geopolitical risk premiums (bullish gold, defensive for energy) and a structural reshaping of global supply lines, especially in semiconductors. |
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| | | | | | | D.C. in the Driver's Seat |
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| | | The clock is nearly out on government funding, and both sides are digging in. Democrats have taken a hard line, refusing to provide the votes Republicans need in the Senate unless healthcare subsidies—first expanded during the pandemic and now supporting more than 24 million enrollees—are restored. Party leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries emerged from the White House Monday without a deal, but with a united caucus behind them. For once, Democrats see leverage in a shutdown fight, betting that protecting voter wallets on healthcare costs is a winning issue. Vice President JD Vance blasted the move as hostage-taking, while Republicans insist Democrats should negotiate only once the government is kept open. | The economic stakes are real. Unless a last-minute agreement is reached, nonessential federal agencies will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, sidelining as many as 800,000 workers. Paychecks for those still working, including the military, would be delayed, and Trump has threatened mass firings if funding lapses. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has already said it won't release data during a shutdown, putting this Friday's closely watched payrolls report in jeopardy and raising questions about October's inflation release as well. That would leave investors leaning more heavily on private data like ADP payrolls and jobless claims to gauge the economy. | History shows shutdowns shave a few tenths off GDP growth, with lost output typically recovered once the government reopens. But the risks this time run deeper: threats of permanent layoffs could dent consumer confidence and spending more lastingly, while closed national parks, stalled permits, and suspended small business loans would ripple through tourism and private industry. TSA staff shortages in the 2019 shutdown caused major travel disruptions; with fewer workers today, the impact could be sharper. The U.S. Travel Association estimates the sector could lose $1 billion a week if the standoff drags on. |
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| | | | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Chicago PMI JOLTs Job Openings CB Consumer Confidence Fed Speakers: Jefferson, Goolsbee, Logan
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| | | | | | Nikkei: -0.25%, Shanghai +0.52
FTSE: +0.15%, Dax +0.17% |
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| | | | | | Markets remain perched just below record highs, but the setup is unusually fragile. Investors are brushing aside shutdown risk and leaning into tech strength, yet gold's relentless climb and oil's sudden reversal show defensive hedges are alive and well. The week ahead boils down to whether the labor data (if it prints) can reinforce the "soft landing" narrative, or whether fiscal gridlock and trade noise finally dent confidence. For traders, this is a week to stay nimble: upside momentum is intact, but catalysts are stacked, and the tape has little margin for error. |
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