Dear Investor,
Today Mortar Group is sharing that the past few years haven't been about things breaking, they've been about expectations resetting as markets adjust to higher rates, tighter capital, and more realistic assumptions. Heading into 2026, they believe the focus shifts away from predicting headlines and toward building resilient, flexible portfolios that can adapt to volatility.
By way of disclosure, we have an advertising relationship with Mortar Group, meaning we get paid for making this introduction and sharing this content. As always with these types of deals, consider this an introduction and not a recommendation. Every deal is unique and the responsibility to vet any and every deal you invest in still lies with you. This opportunity is available to accredited investors only.
Periods of transition often feel uncomfortable—not because something is broken, but because old assumptions are being recalibrated.
The past few years have forced markets to adjust to higher interest rates, tighter capital, and more realistic underwriting. For many investors, that process has felt unsettling – but in reality, it has been clarifying.
As we enter 2026, the key question is no longer whether volatility will persist—it will, likely in surprising and unexpected ways. Politicians will do what they do and markets will react and overreact.
The more important question is how to position capital in an environment where outcomes depend less on perfect prediction and more on resilient structure.
2025 Was Not a Market Failure—It Was a Reset
Looking in the rearview mirror, despite persistent doom-and-gloom headlines, 2025 was not a year of systemic breakdown. It was a year where expectations finally began to normalize.
The stock market delivered positive but uneven returns. Tariffs created chaos early in the year, fixed income markets got stronger, and precious metals like gold and silver exploded and continued their strong performance. Real estate diverged sharply: new projects built on current-rate assumptions stabilized and thrived, while those relying on older debt or aggressive growth struggled.
Most importantly, markets did not fail. Most 2025 predictions simply proved wrong—and many 2026 forecasts will likely follow suit and also be wrong!
Yet - we always continue to plan and project as best we can…
A Structural Lens for 2026
In 2026, results seem like they will be shaped by balance: disciplined leverage, liquidity, and the flexibility to adapt when conditions shift. Investors who have built resilient, diversified plans—rather than chasing perfect timing—are best positioned to act when opportunities arise.
The Cost of Waiting for Certainty
One of the most common mistakes in any market is waiting for perfect clarity before acting. As the saying goes: by the time you read about it in the news, the boat has often already sailed – and you missed it.
Clarity typically arrives after pricing has adjusted. By the time conditions feel fully comfortable, many of the best opportunities, especially in private markets, have already been captured by patient, prepared capital.
We are seeing a clear shift: away from prediction and toward readiness. Sophisticated investors are maintaining dry powder, preserving flexibility, and prioritizing downside protection while staying ready for selective deployment.
At Mortar Group, we established our 2026–2027 strategy nearly a year ago, and the early results on new offerings is promising. Interest rates are beginning to ease, inflation continues to stabilize, and global liquidity is building.
How Sophisticated Capital Is Positioning
Sometimes investing can also be pretty boring. Rather than sweeping reallocations or panic selling, experienced investors sit tight - making incremental, meaningful adjustments, simplifying portfolios and tilting toward emerging opportunities.
Assets burdened by aggressive assumptions or near-term refinancing risk have been repriced lower. Well-capitalized, cash-flowing projects continue to perform.
Another big change (for the positive) is that investors themselves are evolving, asking sharper questions, scrutinizing assumptions more closely, and demanding greater transparency and alignment. This is a healthy maturation for the market.
Real Estate in 2026: Control Over Speculation
Real estate's long-term appeal remains intact. But after a testing cycle, the emphasis has shifted from financial engineering to execution and capital discipline.
The coming cycle is likely to reward smaller, well-located, actively managed assets where operational excellence matters most. Returns may be less dramatic than the prior decade, but they should prove more stable.
For us at Mortar Group, the plan is clear and experience based: move decisively on high-conviction opportunities, structure shorter-duration deals for stable returns, control assets efficiently, protect cash flow, and maximize tax advantages. These have always been real estate's core strengths, especially for high-income professionals seeking reliable growth alongside stability.
A Practical Framework for the Year Ahead
Rather than chasing forecasts, the most effective approach for 2026 is fundamentals:
- Avoid over-concentration in any single asset class or strategy
- Maintain meaningful liquidity
- Favoring investments with multiple paths to success
- Prioritize downside protection over optimistic projections
These principles don't eliminate risk; but they reduce the odds that temporary conditions force permanent impairment of capital.
A Final Thought
2026 does not require perfect timing. It requires discipline.
Markets will continue to evolve. Capital that is thoughtfully structured—balanced, flexible, and grounded in realistic assumptions—will be best positioned to adapt and thrive.
If you'd like to explore how Mortar Group balances discipline, risk, and return across our NYC multifamily projects, visit our investor resources or connect with our team.
Learn More or Get in Touch
Interested in discussing private real estate opportunities or learning about Mortar's upcoming offerings? Visit us at mortargroup.com
Schedule a call or email our Investor Relations Manager: Francesca Gaccione | gaccione@mortargroup.com | 646-559-9471
View our recent investor resources:
- Modern Guide to Real Estate Investing (Free Guide)
- How Silicon Valley used IRA's to Grow A $20 Billion Dollar Fortune (Recent Article)
- Learn How to use Self Directed IRA for Investing (Webinar)
Mortar Group is a boutique real estate investment and development firm specializing in high-quality multifamily projects across New York City. Our vertically integrated platform—design, development, and asset management under one roof—aligns our interests with investors from day one.
We look forward to connecting in 2026!
Best regards,
Anthony Morena
Founder & Principal
Mortar Group
Learn more about Mortar Group today
Thank you for your time, and as always, your feedback is welcome and appreciated.
Jim and Brett
James M. Dahle, MD, FACEP
Founder, The White Coat Investor
Brett Stevens, MBA
COO, The White Coat Investor
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