Dear Investor,
Today Black Swan Real Estate is encouraging you as an investor to tune out short-term noise and focus on the fundamentals that support long-term confidence and stability. By prioritizing cash flow, disciplined debt structures, and strong execution after acquisition, you get better risk management and steady value creation. Black Swan's approach reinforces a commitment to alignment, intentional decision-making, and playing the long game.
By way of disclosure, we have an advertising relationship with Black Swan Real Estate, meaning we get paid for making this introduction and sharing this content. As always with these types of deals, consider this an introduction and not a recommendation. Every deal is unique and the responsibility to vet any and every deal you invest in still lies with you. This opportunity is for accredited investors only.
January always seems to arrive with noise. Predictions, fear, optimism, and strong opinions about what's coming next. At Black Swan Real Estate, we start in a different place: What still matters even if all the headlines are wrong?
That answer hasn't changed much since we bought our first property in 2011, and it continues to guide how we're approaching 2026. When you anchor to fundamentals instead of forecasts, you don't have to react emotionally. You get to act intentionally.
Before you read on, take a quiet moment and ask yourself: If I could place my capital in something steady, disciplined, and thoughtfully managed, would that bring a deeper sense of calm and confidence to my financial life? That's the standard we build everything around.
We're still focused on cash flow. In both certain or uncertain markets, cash flow is freedom. It creates optionality and allows you to make decisions without pressure. It keeps you from needing perfect timing. If a deal doesn't work under conservative assumptions we're comfortable holding for years, we don't force it. Period.
Warren Buffett said, "Only buy something you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years." That's not just a quote we admire, it's a filter we actually use.
Action step for you: look at your own investments and ask, Would I still feel calm if I had to hold this for a decade? If the answer is no, that's useful information.
We're intentional about debt. Debt is not an accessory or an afterthought - it is a critical component of investing. Rates are not something we're counting on to "fix" anything. We prioritize structures that protect downside, avoid unnecessary complexity, and assume we may hold assets through multiple market cycles.
Here's an interesting fact most investors overlook: historically, more real estate portfolios fail from poor debt structure than from bad properties. The asset didn't break. The financing did. We put just as much rigor into sourcing financing as we do into sourcing properties.
That's why we say: the deal + the debt = the magic.
We focus on execution. The real work in real estate happens after the acquisition—finishing value-add plans, improving the resident experience, trimming expenses, and optimizing systems that quietly compound over time.
It's not flashy. It's not Instagram-worthy. It is, however, where durable wealth is built. We intentionally choose to do fewer things extremely well rather than more things inconsistently. If you want to see where returns are actually created, don't look at the purchase price. Look at the operations.
We remain committed to alignment with our investors. In Elaine's time in residency at Mayo Clinic, we adopted their belief that 'the needs of the patient come first.' In real estate investing, we believe the needs of the investor come first. What does that mean? It means we structure our investment offerings in a radical alignment of incentives that puts our investors first, primarily in our no-asset-level-fees policy. We avoid structures that reward General Partners regardless of performance. Instead, we build structures that reward excellence, discipline, and long-term stewardship.
If you'd like to see firsthand how these principles show up in practice, we'll be walking through exactly that in our Q4 2025 Performance Webinar on Tuesday, February 3 at Noon Central. We'll share how our portfolio, now $450M and over 2500 doors, performed, what worked, what didn't, and how we're applying these lessons in our day-to-day decisions. Register to get the zoom link and the full performance report at blackswanteam.com/performance.
Above all, we're playing the long game. We're not trying to time the market or react to every new narrative. Since we first started investing as a simple husband-and-wife team back in 2011 with just one single family home, we've focused on owning quality assets, in markets we understand, with strategies that make sense no matter the economic environment. That approach has served us well through different cycles, and it's the lens we're carrying into 2026.
As you think about your own investments this year, we hope this perspective helps you filter out noise, stay grounded in fundamentals, and make decisions that support the dream life you're intentionally building
To your freedom and legacy,
Nick & Dr. Elaine Stageberg
Founders, Black Swan Real Estate
Black Swan Real Estate is a family-owned, vertically integrated private equity firm that has grown from a single home purchase to more than 2,300 units and nearly $450 million in assets under management today. Founded in 2011 by Nick and Dr. Elaine Stageberg—a software architect and a Mayo Clinic–trained psychiatrist turned investors —our firm exists to help physicians and high-income professionals create financial freedom through real estate.
We specialize in acquiring and operating large multifamily communities in Minnesota, where our in-house property management team drives value through hands-on operations, renovations, and resident care. By aligning our own capital with our investors', having no GP level fees whatsoever, and prioritizing our investors' needs first, we ensure true partnership. Our vision is not just strong returns—it's freedom, legacy, and lasting impact for our investors, our residents, and the communities we serve. Register for our upcoming Portfolio Performance Webinar at blackswanteam.com/performance.
Learn more about Black Swan Real Estate today
Thank you for your time, and as always, your feedback is welcome and appreciated.
Jim and Brett
James M. Dahle, MD, FACEP
Founder, The White Coat Investor
Brett Stevens, MBA
COO, The White Coat Investor
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