This analysis is over a five-year period. The numbers over a 15-year period are even worse, with a little bit over 5% of funds outperforming.
Griffin would probably argue that hedge funds do better. But the facts don’t back him up there either.
Not only have the hedge fund indices — even his vaunted Citadel — underperformed the S&P 500 heavily over time!
Griffin’s returns aren’t amazing. He makes his real money not from his returns, but from the amount of assets he has under management.
Keep in mind, you have to jump through a ton of hoops and pay massive fees to get the “privilege” of investing with him and his billionaire pals.
Here is what he said:
“It’s very important to understand that your likelihood of beating the pros as a novice investor is low. It’d be like asking me to go out there and play football on an NFL team. One of the mistakes that investors will make early in life is they don’t take a step back and think about the fact that there are thousands and thousands of people for whom picking stocks is a full-time job. Now, this doesn’t mean that retail investors aren’t successful, but I think that retail investors need to always keep in mind that for a significant portion of their portfolio, they should probably entrust it to professional investors for whom this is a full-time job.”
Part of this is true. Factually, professional investors spend a lot more time than retail investors on stocks.
The data appears to support the idea that it doesn’t matter, as the vast majority of both underperform the stock market indices.
Why then should you pay those hefty fees to these professionals? You shouldn’t!
Instead, you should empower yourself through intelligent research, finding great resources, and a disciplined process.
You Are Not Doomed to Fail
An analogy I like to use is the restaurant business.
You don’t need a degree or training to open a restaurant. The market is huge, and anyone with a little bit of capital can start one.
The data shows, however, that the vast majority of restaurants fail.
The myth is that 90% fail in the first year, which isn’t exactly true. Here is a good graphic showing the actual numbers.
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