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This year will not bring a sudden end to global tensions. But it will likely deepen trends that are shaping the world. Global relations will continue to be defined by: |
· competition |
· regional conflicts |
· economic pressure |
· technological rivalry |
Rather than a single crisis, the world will face several linked challenges at the same time. States will cooperate less at the global level and more within smaller alliances. Trust in institutions will remain weak. States will focus first on their own security, economy, and political stability. |
A continued multipolar world |
The world will still be multipolar. The U.S. will stay the most powerful state. But its dominance will be limited. China will continue to challenge U.S. influence, mostly in Asia, Africa, and global trade. Russia, despite economic and military pressure, will still act as a disruptive power. |
Middle powers will play a larger role. Countries like India, Turkey, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia will seek more autonomy. They will avoid choosing sides too clearly between the U.S. and China. They will likely act based on their own interests. |
This system will be less stable than the old Cold War order. Clear rules and red lines will be harder to define. Misunderstandings and regional crises will become more likely. |
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The U.S.: power under pressure |
U.S. foreign policy will still focus on China, Russia, and priorities at home. Allies may worry about long-term U.S. commitment. Even more if elections continue to produce sharp policy shifts. |
The U.S. will invest heavily in military technology, AI, and cyber defense. It will also try to protect supply chains. The focus will be on semiconductors, energy, and rare minerals. Trade will be treated even more as a security issue rather than an economic one. |
Relations with the EU will remain strong but tense. The EU will be pushed to spend more on defense. But also, to take more responsibility for their own security. |
China: strategic patience and economic challenges |
China will stay cautious but ambitious. Its long-term goal will still be to reshape the global order in its favor. But economic slowdown, demographic decline, and internal control issues will limit its options. |
China will avoid direct conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan. It will likely use pressure tactics such as: |
· military exercises |
· economic tools |
· political influence |
The Taiwan issue will remain one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world. |
China will also expand its influence in the Global South. It will keep up with its infrastructure projects, technology exports, and diplomacy. But mistrust of China will still grow in many states. This will likely lead to tighter controls on China's investment and technology. |
Russia: a weakened but dangerous actor |
Russia will likely still be dealing with the effects of war and sanctions. Its economy will be more dependent on a small group of partners. This group includes China, Iran, and North Korea. |
But Russia will remain dangerous. It will continue to rely on nuclear threats, cyber-attacks, and disinformation. Moscow will try to exploit divisions inside the EU. But also between the EU and the U.S. |
The war in Ukraine may be frozen rather than resolved. This would create long-term instability in East Europe. But also keep tensions with NATO high. |
Europe: security first |
EU will be more focused on defense than at any time since the Cold War. Military spending will be higher. Cooperation inside NATO will deepen. But political divisions within the EU will remain. |
Energy security will still be a key issue. EU will continue to reduce dependence on Russia's energy. It will continue to invest in renewables and alternative suppliers. Economic growth will remain slow. This might increase social and political pressure inside many states. |
EU will also struggle to define its role between the U.S. and China. While aligned with the U.S. on security, it will try to keep economic ties with China. |
The Middle East and Global South |
The Middle East will remain unstable. Conflicts involving Israel, Iran, and armed groups will continue to affect regional and global security. The risk of escalation will stay high, even if large-scale war is avoided. |
In Africa and Latin America, political instability, climate stress, and debt will shape geopolitics. External powers will compete for influence, resources, and military access. Many states will use this competition to gain better deals. But at the cost of long-term dependence. |
Technology, climate, and conflict |
Technology will still play a growing role. AI, drones, cyber warfare, and surveillance will change how power is used. Smaller states and non-state actors will gain new tools. This could make conflicts harder to control. |
Climate change will act as a threat multiplier. Extreme weather, food shortages, and water stress will increase migration and instability. This will mostly affect fragile regions. Climate issues will no longer be seen only as environmental problems. But as core security risks. |
In 2026, geopolitics will be shaped less by sudden shocks and more by slow, dangerous trends. Rather than a single global crisis, the main risk will be constant tension across many regions. Managing this unstable balance will be one of the greatest challenges for governments in 2026 and beyond. |
Decoding geopolitics isn't a job. It's survival. |
I wish you a happy new year and all the best for 2026 ! 🙂 |
Joy |
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