What Changed? | This Week's Briefing: The headline economy still looks steady, but the payment math underneath it is getting less forgiving — and the cleanest signal is showing up in 90+ day delinquencies. | The latest New York Fed Household Debt and Credit data (2025Q3, released November 2025) show balances still rising, while more borrowers roll from "behind" into "seriously behind." That shift matters because 90+ days past due is where lenders tighten terms, securitizations reprice, and loss curves start to look less theoretical. | | Early investors who bought shares during Amazon's 1997 IPO have had the chance to make a fortune. | In fact, Amazon has climbed more than 255,000% in the time since – enough to turn a $100 bill into more than $250,000! | But if you missed out, don't kick yourself… | According to a report from Capital.com, Elon Musk could be gearing up to take his internet satellite giant, called Starlink, public… in what Fortune magazine says will be the biggest IPO in history! | And here's the kicker… | With an estimated value of more than $100 billion, that means Starlink's potential IPO could be a staggering 287 times bigger than Amazon's 1997 IPO. | It'll also be 55 times bigger than Apple's IPO, 128 times bigger than Microsoft's IPO, and 177 times bigger than Nvidia's IPO, to name just a few. | In other words, the amount of wealth that could be up for grabs during Starlink's IPO will be nothing short of mind-boggling. | But that's not all… | For the first time ever, James Altucher – one of the world's top venture capitalists – is sharing how ANYONE can get a pre-IPO stake in Starlink… with as little as $100! | That means you have the first-ever chance to skip the line, and position yourself BEFORE the IPO takes place. | Click here now to see how to take action. | | The Numbers | Total household debt: $18.59T in 2025Q3 (+$197B quarter-over-quarter). Credit card balances: $1.23T; auto loan balances: $1.66T (both 2025Q3). Share of balances 90+ days delinquent (2025Q3): auto 5.02%; credit cards 12.41%; "other" consumer debt 9.55%. New balances transitioning into serious delinquency (90+) in 2025Q3: auto 2.99%; credit cards 7.05%; "other" 5.35%. Overall, 4.5% of outstanding household debt sat in some stage of delinquency in 2025Q3
| | Why It Matters | First, this is a cost-of-credit story, not just a consumer one. When 90+ day delinquencies rise, lenders don't need a recession to react — they tighten underwriting, shrink credit lines, and reprice risk on the margin. The transmission is fast in cards and unsecured lending, and slower but still meaningful in autos via higher down payments and fewer approvals. | Second, the "other" bucket is the quiet pressure point. The New York Fed series doesn't isolate personal loans by label, but "other" debt captures a broad unsecured mix that includes many personal-loan-like products. When that category's serious delinquency flow runs north of 5%, it's a reminder that the stress is no longer confined to one niche. | Third, watch the gap between balances and behavior. Household debt is still growing at a moderate pace, but the delinquency tail is thickening. That combination tends to compress lender risk appetite — and it can do so even while aggregate spending holds up. | | Takeaway | Markets often treat consumer credit as a lagging recession signal. The more useful framing right now is simpler: rising 90+ day delinquencies are a real-time referendum on whether higher rates have become structurally harder to carry. When the tail moves first, pricing usually follows. | — Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger | | Sources | Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Center for Microeconomic Data), November 2025 https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20251105 | Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax) — Data Underlying Report (2025Q3), November 2025 | https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/xls/hhd_c_report_2025q3.xlsx | Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit: 2025Q3), November 2025 https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/hhdc_2025q3.pdf |
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