What Changed? | The inflation conversation keeps drifting back to wages and shelter—slow-moving categories that arrive neatly in monthly prints. But the next surprise often starts earlier and higher up the supply chain, where energy and industrial inputs can reprice in days and land first in corporate costs. | That creates a different kind of inflation risk. Even if "core" measures look steady, commodity-linked cost shocks can pressure margins, alter pricing behavior, and move markets before they show up cleanly in CPI. | | Forget Amazon's 1997 IPO… This Could Be 287 Times Bigger | Early investors who bought shares during Amazon's 1997 IPO have had the chance to make a fortune. | In fact, Amazon has climbed more than 255,000% in the time since – enough to turn a $100 bill into more than $250,000! | But if you missed out, don't kick yourself… | According to a report from Capital.com, Elon Musk could be gearing up to take his internet satellite giant, called Starlink, public… in what Fortune magazine says will be the biggest IPO in history! | And here's the kicker… | With an estimated value of more than $100 billion, that means Starlink's potential IPO could be a staggering 287 times bigger than Amazon's 1997 IPO. | It'll also be 55 times bigger than Apple's IPO, 128 times bigger than Microsoft's IPO, and 177 times bigger than Nvidia's IPO, to name just a few. | In other words, the amount of wealth that could be up for grabs during Starlink's IPO will be nothing short of mind-boggling. | But that's not all… | For the first time ever, James Altucher – one of the world's top venture capitalists – is sharing how ANYONE can get a pre-IPO stake in Starlink… with as little as $100! | That means you have the first-ever chance to skip the line, and position yourself BEFORE the IPO takes place. | Click here now to see how to take action | | The Numbers | CPI rises 2.7% year over year in December 2025; core CPI rises 2.6%. Within CPI, food rises 3.1% year over year; energy rises 2.3%. Shelter inflation runs 3.2% year over year—cooling, but still a large contributor to core. Producer prices signal more volatility upstream: PPI final demand rises 3.0% year over year in November 2025; "core" final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rises 3.5%. In November, final demand goods jump 0.9% month over month, led by final demand energy (+4.6%); gasoline rises 10.5%. WTI crude averages $57.97 per barrel in December 2025—low enough to soothe headlines, but still capable of swinging quickly when supply risk shows up.
| | Why It Matters | Wage-driven inflation is a demand story. It tends to unfold gradually—tight labor markets, higher compensation, sticky service prices, and a slow policy response. Commodity-driven inflation is different: it's a supply story, and supply shocks are fast. | For investors, that speed matters more than the level. When energy or key inputs jump, companies feel it in three places before consumers see it in CPI. First, gross margins compress when firms can't pass costs through immediately. Second, "pricing discipline" hardens—raising the odds that goods disinflation stalls. Third, guidance language shifts from demand visibility to cost management, which can change how markets value earnings durability. | This is why commodity-linked inflation can re-ignite narratives even when the labor story looks benign. The monthly CPI print is a lagging scoreboard; commodity moves are often the opening act. If upstream prices stay jumpy while CPI looks calm, it's a reminder that "inflation progress" can coexist with renewed margin pressure—especially in transportation, industrials, chemicals, and consumer staples. | | Takeaway | The risk to watch isn't a clean return of broad-based inflation. It's a narrower, faster channel—commodities—where cost shocks hit margins and sentiment first, then filter into prices with a delay. | | Sources | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2026 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2026 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142026.htm | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2026 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — EIA WTI series, January 2026 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCOILWTICO | | |
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