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Salesforce's AI Bet Is Paying Off—the Buyback Proves It
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Salesforce is well-positioned to benefit from agentic AI, although it is unlikely to see its growth accelerate substantially in the upcoming quarters.
- Growth remains healthy, as is cash flow, which underpins shareholder value and capital returns.
- Analysts trimmed their price targets following the release, but remain bullish on this market, waiting to see how the year develops.
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Although adoption is slow, Salesforce's (NYSE: CRM) February Q4 fiscal 2026 (FY2026) earnings release shows momentum in agentic AI. Despite fears of AI disruption, the company's Agentforce is driving growth, suggesting those concerns may be misplaced.
While a rapid acceleration in growth is unlikely, the company appears on track to sustain double-digit growth for the foreseeable future, has the potential to outperform guidance, and generates strong cash flow.
Cash Flow and Capital Return Highlight Salesforce's Quality
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Cash flow is the critical factor for this stock, as Salesforce's business is megacap-sized and subject to the law of large numbers. Robust growth is difficult to accelerate and harder to sustain at high levels, and expectations are high. In this environment attention shifts from growth investments to capital returns, which were strengthened alongside the release. The company announced a 5.8% dividend increase and an additional $50 billion share buyback authorization, underscoring the board's and management's confidence in future results.
The capital return is significant and could grow. The dividend is modest but sustainable — less than 15% of the fiscal 2027 earnings forecast — and appears positioned for steady increases. Salesforce has paid dividends for just over two years and has raised the payout three times, including the early-2026 increase. Based on the payout ratio, the company can sustain mid-single-digit compound annual growth in the dividend indefinitely, potentially qualifying for the Dividend Aristocrats by mid-century.
Buybacks are larger and similarly sustainable, reducing share count and partly offsetting the impact of higher per-share dividends. In fiscal 2026 buybacks reduced the share count by about 3.5% in Q4 and 1.8% for the year; management expects to sustain this pace. The $50 billion authorization would cover roughly four quarters at the Q4 2026 pace.
Analysts Assume Wait-and-See Posture With Salesforce
Analysts' response was generally bullish, though many adopted a wait-and-see posture. Numerous price-target reductions appeared, reflecting concerns about the lower end of the range amid growth uncertainty.
Consensus after the release places the stock near $300 — about 55% above late-February lows — while the low end of analyst targets sits near $197. Of 41 analysts, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy with a 68% Buy-side bias; only one analyst rates the stock as a Sell.
Post-release price action was mixed: shares dipped in pre-market trading but recovered before the open. Early price action shows a bullish rebound from long-term lows, with potential to accelerate in coming sessions. Technical indicators, including moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastic, point to a price bottom and a strong technical entry signal for market watchers.
Institutional investors likely helped drive the move. MarketBeat data show the group owns more than 80% of the stock and has been net buying over the trailing twelve months (TTM), ramping activity in early Q1 2026. TTM activity shows more than $2 bought for every $1 sold, while early-Q1 activity rose to over $3 bought for every $1 sold — a solid support base and market tailwind if the trend continues.
Salesforce Outperforms in Q4, Raises Long-Term Guidance
Salesforce delivered a solid Q4, with revenue rising more than 12% to $11.2 billion. Subscriptions and services revenue grew 13% (11% on a constant-currency basis), driven by its Agentforce applications. All regions reported double-digit growth, and forward-looking measures such as current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) and remaining performance obligation (RPO) accelerated.
Margins were also strong. Increasing revenue leverage and operational execution, aided by share buybacks, drove a significant earnings acceleration. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.81, about $0.75 ahead of consensus and up 37% year-over-year. The main caveat is guidance, which forecasts just over 10.5% annualized growth with strength in Q1 and the back half offset by mid-year softness. Importantly, the company raised its 2030 revenue target to $63 billion (up from "more than $60 billion"), a goal that could be revised higher again.
3 Undervalued Names Too Cheap to Ignore
Reported by Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 3/7/2026.
Key Points
- Several established companies present potential value plays in early 2026 thanks to comparably low P/E ratios and strong fundamentals, despite broader market challenges.
- Merck's recent rally has not compromised its P/E ratio, which remains below the industry average, as the company navigates new ways to grow revenue amid its flagship Keytruda nearing patent expiration.
- Campbell's and US Foods offer contrasting cases: the former experiencing a sharp pullback and a high dividend yield, while the latter rallying amid adjusted EBITDA gains and the potential for further improvement.
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Highly publicized growth trajectories of some of the biggest companies may make it seem like 2026 is not a prime time for a value strategy. Still, several sizable firms are trading at attractive valuations and offer potential for share-price appreciation alongside fundamental growth.
The companies below represent potential value plays, with metrics that are historically low and/or competitive relative to peers or the broader market. They also offer added benefits, such as compelling dividends or promising new product developments. While value opportunities can be harder to find when many companies have regained investor attention — and some that appear cheap have deteriorating operations or other red flags — well-established, stable names can still present value prospects.
Even After Rally, Merck May Be Undervalued, With Careful Planning for Keytruda in the Works
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Although shares have climbed more than 28% in the last year, bringing Merck's market capitalization to nearly $300 billion, biopharma giant Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) still trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.45, well below the medical industry average of roughly 27. Analysts expect continued growth: the company is projected to see earnings climb by nearly 10% in the coming year and has a 5% additional upside in the near term.
Driving Merck's momentum is its pembrolizumab cancer drug, Keytruda, which was approved for subcutaneous injection by the European Commission in late 2025. Keytruda generated about $8.4 billion in sales in Q4 2025, up nearly 7% year-over-year. Keytruda also shows promise in ovarian cancer, potentially expanding its patient base. That growth should help Merck as it prepares for Keytruda's patent expiry in 2028.
Merck's portfolio is broadening, including recent phase 3 trial results for clesrovimab-cfor (Enflonsia), a treatment for RSV in young children. At the same time, the company is reorganizing its human health business into two separate units to better position itself to grow non-oncology sales as Keytruda approaches patent expiration.
A Difficult External Situation Pressures Campbell's, But Strong Dividend and Value Remain Factors
Campbell's (NASDAQ: CPB) shares have fallen about 37% over the last year as the food-and-beverage staple faced pressure from tariffs and inflation. In Q1 fiscal 2026, which ended Nov. 2, 2025, the company posted modest year-over-year declines in organic net sales and consumption, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell 13% over the same period. The company has not yet realized meaningful margin improvement despite initiating cost-saving measures.
The near term will likely remain challenging for the iconic brand, as fiscal-year guidance is weak overall.
Still, improvements in the supply chain and strong brand loyalty — particularly for premium offerings — should provide some protection. A shifting tariff landscape may also ease some of the external pressure the company faces.
On top of that, Campbell's remains a notable dividend play, with a yield of 5.9%, though its payout ratio is fairly high at over 80%. Moreover, Campbell's P/E ratio of 13.5 is the lowest it has been in about four years. These factors may convince some investors that the stock is worth the risk despite caution among Wall Street analysts.
A Recent US Foods Rally May Continue, and Bottom-Line Growth Remains in Place
Foodservice distribution leader US Foods (NYSE: USFD) has seen a strong run: shares climbed about 33% in the last year. Its P/E ratio sits at 31.6.
Fundamentally, US Foods is making important strides. The company reported improved profitability in the latest quarter and full-year adjusted EBITDA gains of 11% year-over-year. Better inventory management and reductions in cost of goods sold are helping the firm gain traction. With a $4 billion capital deployment strategy in place, US Foods is well-positioned to maintain revenue momentum and continue its upward trend in adjusted EBITDA.
Analysts view USFD as a Moderate Buy based on 11 Buys and 2 Holds, with roughly 15% upside potential.
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