An Ignoble Experiment: The Movement: Iran war confuses MAGA base, testing trust in Trump

By Emily Brooks | Tuesday, March 3

© Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

Iran war confuses MAGA base, testing trust in Trump

President Trump's attack on Iran is confusing the MAGA base that once bragged that he never started any wars, testing the limits of their trust in the president's foreign policy judgement.

There are, of course, many Republicans like Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) who have long advocated for the U.S. to take decisive action in Iran and take out the ayatollah, and they are thrilled.

But a significant portion of the MAGA base is made up of anti-interventionists and skeptics of forced regime change — those who were scarred by the drawn-out, expensive entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Several of those predictably panned the strikes.

Tucker Carlson, who The New York Times reported had tried to talk Trump out of action in Iran, told ABC News the war was "disgusting and evil." On his podcast Monday, Carlson said that this is "Israel's war" and it is "not being waged on behalf of American national security objectives." Megyn Kelly also said on her radio show that this feels like "clearly Israel's war" and voiced doubts about the move. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and current Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) balked also, saying it was not "America First."

But Trump over the years has won over many of those in the more skeptical camp by practicing a "third way" of foreign policy that was neither isolationist nor sought to nation build, defined by limited strikes and surgical operations: the strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020; dropping bunker-busting bombs on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025; and capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January without toppling the entire Venezuelan regime.

But Operation Epic Fury is stretching the ability of the MAGA faithful to support an overseas intervention, given the uncertainty and mixed messaging from the Trump administration.

Trump in a video message Saturday seemed to explicitly call for regime change, encouraging the Iranian people to "take over your government" when the strikes stop, and later bragging that 49 members of Iranian leadership had been killed.

Yet Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in a Monday press conference said: "This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it." He insisted this will not be an "endless" war like Iraq — and that the U.S. did not start the war, but is responding to Iranian aggression and threats. This operation, he said, is the "opposite" of nation building.

Hegseth detailed the objectives of taking out Iranian military capabilities, and bristled when asked if there was concern about the war going longer than expected: "Did you not hear my remarks?"

Trump, meanwhile, told the New York Post he isn't ruling out putting boots on the ground in Iran, in keeping with never ruling out any military move.

None of this is calming the nerves of those who had long been skeptical of getting into a deeper entanglement in Iran, and confusing some of them.

Conservative commentator Matt Walsh of The Daily Wire vented on the social platform X: "So far we've heard that although we killed the whole Iranian regime, this was not a regime change war. And although we obliterated their nuclear program, we had to do this because of their nuclear program … The messaging on this thing is, to put it mildly, confused."

The Federalist co-founder Sean Davis similarly wondered: "Is the goal to eliminate the Iranian regime or free the Iranian people or degrade their nuclear capability or degrade the conventional weapons capability or eliminate their regional hegemony or to cut off their oil supply to China or to help Israel or what? The lack of any coherent message seems to suggest the lack of any coherent objective."

That prompted a rare coalition-policing response from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt to Walsh, laying out the administration's objectives of destroying Iran's military capabilities, slamming Iran for not making a nuclear deal, and saying that "killing terrorists is good for America."

And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in an attempt to clear up confusion after a briefing on Capitol Hill, offered an explanation that only fueled critics who said the war was being waged on behalf of Israel: "We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties." (Various reporting has said that the U.S. and Israel acted in conjunction based on U.S. intelligence.)

Videos of slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk voicing skepticism of intervention in Iran circulated on social media over the weekend, articulating the prewar sentiment of those who had warmed to Trump's "third way" interventions and trusted in Trump's foreign policy calls while still urging restraint. Kirk had warned against regime change wars but said he supported Trump after the Iran strikes last summer.

But as "Charlie Kirk Show" hosts Blake Neff and Andrew Kolvet said Monday, Kirk was also a close ally and supporter of Trump, and it is impossible to know what he would have said about this action now.

Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), a former Navy SEAL, captured the mood of cautious Trump supporters on the "Charlie Kirk Show" on Monday. He said he had been urging caution before the strikes when it comes to regime change. He expressed concern about the ability of the Iranian people to take hold of the government in a way that will benefit the U.S. when other forces like China are also looking to exert influence in the country.

"It's very dynamic, it's very hard to pull off," Crane said.

But with the war now here, there's little other choice for those who urged caution but to hope that those who cheered it are vindicated.

"Now that this operation is underway, I'm hoping, I'm praying, for not only the administration and the wisdom for their decisions going forward, but also for the people of Iran," Crane said. "I hope it works out."

Welcome to The Movement, a new weekly newsletter looking at the influences and debates on the right in Washington. I'm Emily Brooks, House leadership reporter at The Hill. Tell me what's on your radar: ebrooks@thehill.com.

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'THE POLITICAL VISE' CONCEPTUALIZES PRESSURE POINTS

John Tillman, chairman of the free-market group Illinois Policy, has a new book out today called "The Political Vise" that outlines a framework for understanding the pressure systems that affect how politicians behave — and the systems that influence public opinion. He seeks to answer why "so many people of good intent, who ran as conservatives, move left once in office — while virtually no one moves to the right."

Tillman conceptualizes the concept as a three-sided vise, summarizing in an interview: "The best analogy is the trash compactor and the first Star Wars movie, trash compactor getting squeezed from all sides."

In the traditional political vise, politicians faced pressure from the media, the people, and influencers at the bottom and most powerful — pushing politicians to make decisions based on political expediency, fear, and principle.

"What's happened more recently is that there's been an alignment between parts of the political left, parts of the activist left, and the media to try to put the people in the vise," Tillman said. "And instead of the people being sovereign over this power structure, they're trying to work together to subjugate the American people and make them conform to their behavior. And the pandemic is the best example of that."

In what he calls the "liberty" political vise to reshape these incentives, politicians face pressure from the media, influencers, and the people, with the people at the bottom holding politicians accountable to make decisions based on personal aspiration, personal opportunity, and personal fulfillment.

With that framework in mind, Tillman creates a call to action for reshaping those institutions.

"We have to build a permanent infrastructure that creates the ability to compete for mindshare," Tillman said. "Breitbart was well known for popularizing the phrase that politics is downstream of culture. … That means that we have to invest at the headwaters of the river, because ideas and belief systems and beliefs of people and voters and in culture, those ideas are formed at the headwaters long before an election."

That, he said, means investing not only in conservative media, but in media that "competes for mindshare among the personable middle and the soft left" and "can meet people where they're at" — and "to get the donor class to understand that."

Tillman stressed the importance of continuing to study how to win to ensure long-term political success.

"I'm totally worried about so many people on the political right — practitioners, activists and donors — who think that Trump's victory means permanent victory. It does not," Tillman said. "We can see that already by all of the obstacles to him in trying to just implement an agenda elected with a majority of the popular vote, resounding Electoral College vote victory, majorities in both chambers. And yet, he's had a very difficult time because the other side has not given up."

AFP LAUNCHES AFFORDABILITY ADS

Americans for Prosperity (AFP), the LIBRE Initiative, and Concerned Veterans for America are launching a seven-figure ad campaign focused on affordability issues.

A narrator in the ad says: "For too long, Washington has said no to builders, workers, and American families, and yes to bureaucracy, delay, and special interests. Let's flip that. Say yes to building more housing, and no to government mandates that block it. Yes to permitting American energy, and no to endless red tape. Yes to putting patients in charge of health care, and no to letting insurance companies call the shots."

The three groups will also coordinate their activist bases in all 50 states in support of the affordability message, through outreach to voters, events throughout the country, and partnership with congressional staff and lawmakers.

A release alongside the announcement of the campaign noted results from a February Public Opinion Strategies survey commissioned by AFP that had key findings about the importance of the affordability message.

"Cost of living dominates voter priorities. Reducing the cost of living and addressing affordability outrank every other issue, with roughly four-in-ten voters (37%) naming it as their top issue," the release said.

"Everyday essentials are driving economic anxiety. When voters talk about affordability, they are focused on core household expenses, including utilities (58%), food (57%), health care (50%), and housing (41%)."

ON MY CALENDAR

Thursday, March 5: Conservative organizer Scott Presler will join the Conservative Partnership Institute for its "Off the Record" speaker series, moderated by Brendon Leslie, founder and CEO of Florida's Voice. Doors at 5:00 p.m.
Tuesday, March 10: Breitbart News hosts a discussion with Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr, led by Breitbart's Matthew Boyle. The Alfa Institute and CGCN sponsor the event, starting at 10 a.m.

THREE MORE THINGS

1. KIRK BANNER APPEARS ON DEPT OF EDUCATION BUILDING

The Department of Education building has a banner of slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk on its building in Washington, D.C., alongside Booker T. Washington, an advocate for Black advancement through education, and Catharine Beecher, an educator who vehemently supported educating women and girls. "Empowering the state to tell the stories of our heroes in American Education," another banner says. Semafor's David Weigel snapped a picture over the weekend.

2. TRUMP ADVISER STRANDED AS IRAN STRIKES BEGAN

Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz was stranded in the Middle East as the strikes in Iran started. He shared a video of missiles passing over his head, and thanked the leadership in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), and U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle for their assistance.

3. WHAT ERIKA KIRK'S SOTU INVITATION MEANS

President Trump had Erika Kirk as one of his guests at his State of the Union address last week, which — as the Washington Examiner's Tiana Lowe Doescher notes — came right as Candace Owens released a conspiratorial series about Charlie Kirk's widow. "In putting Erika Kirk in the center of Congress and photographed forever for the history books, he has made his diktat clear: disrespect or defame the dignified Mrs. Kirk at your own political peril."