Key Points
- A new report from Google suggests that quantum computers may be able to render critical aspects of the security cryptography used in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies obsolete in just a few more years.
- The development could have major implications for pure-play quantum computing tech firms like D-Wave Quantum.
- Although D-Wave remains a risky play with massive short interest and a sharply declining share price, it could be positioned well to benefit from disruption to the blockchain and crypto spaces.
- Special Report: The 200-to-1 gold ratio that breaks on May 29th
As Bitcoin has been trading sideways for two months and remains significantly below its 2025 all-time high, quantum computing firms like D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) may be the latest force to exert further downward pressure on the cryptocurrency space. A recent whitepaper produced by Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) suggests that a so-called "Q-Day" in which the cryptography supporting the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem is solvable by quantum computers may be quickly approaching.
To be sure, D-Wave has had many of its own issues in recent months, and with prices of the quantum leader down by about 50% since the start of the year, it may not be immediately clear how disrupting Bitcoin and other cryptos might help to reverse this trend. Perhaps more than anything else, the speculation about the quantum industry's potential impact on cryptocurrency illustrates just how transformational this new technology could be in the years to come.
A Move From Crypto to Quantum?
The reasons why quantum computing technology threatens Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies lie in how the latter achieve security via private and public keys protected by cryptography.
Thanks to the unique structure and strengths of quantum computing systems, it's possible that these computers will be able to derive a private key—effectively eliminating the security system protecting a wallet of cryptocurrencies—in mere minutes.
One reason why this development may be beneficial for shares of D-Wave has to do with the speculative nature of both crypto and quantum. It's conceivable that crypto investors might exit positions in Bitcoin or other tokens as they determine that these alternatives to traditional financial systems are no longer secure—and instead, these investors may choose to speculate on the other side of the trade by targeting quantum firms. D-Wave enjoys a prominent position as a rare pure-play quantum firm with strong operational growth prospects, making it a natural choice for investors in this situation.
What Could Follow After a Quantum-Led Bitcoin Disruption
To be sure, even if quantum computers unravel the core cryptography behind Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, that doesn't necessarily mean that the crypto space would be done for. In fact, D-Wave is already positioning itself to be a leader in a new blockchain ecosystem thanks to the use of its Advantage2 system in post-quantum security projects by Postquant Labs.
This, combined with D-Wave's already unique placement as a dual-focused quantum tech firm working at the intersection of annealing and gate-model technologies, could give it a real advantage if quantum companies find themselves racing to replace the prior cryptocurrency infrastructure at some point in the years to come. The twin nature of D-Wave's technological pursuits has already drawn massive customer interest, generating surging backlogs and a lucrative new contract with a Fortune 100 company so far this year.
Investors should also note that threats to cryptocurrency encryption mechanisms extend far beyond Bitcoin. Cryptography also plays a vital role in national security, meaning that government agencies will be watching these developments in the quantum space closely. D-Wave has a potential advantage here as well, thanks to its longstanding efforts in the government sector—including its notable partnerships with Davidson Technologies Inc. and Anduril Industries Inc. on defense applications.
Fundamental Momentum, But Real Risks Remain
Despite a near-tripling in full-year revenue year over year in 2025 and major customer traction via new contracts and interest, D-Wave remains a very risky proposition. Several strong points in its latest earnings report were not enough to prevent a selloff following its release, as investors are cognizant of the potential for the company's shares to continue to decline while it remains pre-profit.
Even as a highly speculative stock that has pushed the upper limits of what many tech investors may find to be acceptable in terms of valuation multiples, the prospect of a massive turnaround that sends QBTS shares skyward again may be tempting to many investors.
Analysts still expect D-Wave's stock to surge above $36, which would mean a boost of close to 170% compared to current levels. Major short interest in D-Wave also means that the company could have short squeeze potential, particularly if a positive catalyst begins to rapidly send the stock price back up. A hypothetical D-Wave tech development that allows its systems to crack the encryption code powering some of the leading cryptocurrencies could be just the thing to initiate this movement.
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