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2011/08/26

Investors Look for Silver Lining


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Friday August 26, 2011

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Happy Fed Day!


U.S. Growth and Oil Prices


More on Buffett's Investments




Fellow Investor,

Today is Fed day. Bernanke will have spoken by the time you read this, so I will not go into any detail about my own expectations. Suffice to say I don't expect the Fed to announce any new stimulus.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 1% rate in the second quarter. This is revised lower from 1.3%. Investors expected this, so it's not a market moving number.

Growth actually improved from the first quarter, and that's one reason I think the Fed stands down today. We should expect growth to pick up a bit more for the end of the year.

I've said it before, but this is an opportunity for Bernanke to instill a little confidence, rather than repeat his "growth is slower than desired" mantra.

For comparison's sake, growth in the U.K. came in at 0.3%. The weakness is attributed to austerity measures.

Oil prices are below $85, which seems like a knee-jerk reaction to the GDP number. You know the playbook. Improving growth means higher oil. Weakening growth means lower oil.

I've seen some estimates for oil prices to fall into the $70s. All I can say is: if it does, buy oil stocks with both hands.

I find it amusing that investors still assume that U.S. demand drives oil prices. Maybe it does for a day or two. But over time, demand from emerging markets like China have every bit as much to do with the price of oil as the U.S. That's not to mention the fact that new production is far more expensive than OPEC's output.

Promises by politicians that they can deliver $2 a gallon gasoline are absolute rubbish...
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Market Snapshot

US Markets - August 25 Close

Dow Jones

11,149.82

-170.89

(-1.51%)

S&P 500

1,159.27

-18.33

(-1.56%)

Nasdaq

2,419.63

-48.06

(-1.95%)

Currencies

EUR/USD

1.433

-0.0041

(-0.2835%)

USD/JPY

76.995

-0.47

(-0.6067%)

GBP/USD

1.6214

-0.0065

(-0.4011%)


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