Notes From Bill Bonner's Vancouver Presentation

Live From The Agora Financial Investment Symposium The Real (and Surreal) Risks of Inaction Monday, August 1 | 1:00 PM Vancouver, British Columbia Dear Reader, I’m standing over three solid black, truncated cylinders of various diameters, all of them more or less knee-high on the polished floor of the Vancouver Art Gallery’s concrete-metal-and-glass exhibit hall, a triumph of design in itself... They don’t look like anything else I’ve ever seen — which is what makes them so interesting to me. I lean all the way over in the bright light, examining the sculptures, being careful not to touch. I take a knee beside the smallest one to get the closest look possible... The guard in this particular room is watching me intently. He’s smiling a little. Perhaps he enjoys seeing someone become wrapped up in a particular work. I’m sure he sees it happen often with the piece I’m scrutinizing now... The three cylinders appear to be made of thousands of radially oriented layers of some sort of heavy paper — like a really dense, coverless book opened all the way up so that the first and last pages touch flat against each other. The top edges of these thin layers are not crisp, like the sides. They’re weathered and beaten up, like the artist pressed or hammered them down with something heavy, mashing them together. They’re nicked and jagged in places, too. Like they’ve had keys dragged over them, or something... The guard, a slight, old-ish Asian man, keeps watching me and smiling. I ignore him. I’m letting this artist’s vision inhabit me completely. It’s something that doesn’t happen to me often — and it’s moving, I must confess. More and more people are filing into this section of the gallery. But I barely notice them, so transfixed am I by this brilliant piece. I think I’m finally starting to “get” modern art. I finally tear my gaze from the piece to the nearby wall. I’m searching for a plaque of some type telling me the details about the artist and the work, but can’t find it. I double-check the floor around the piece. Nothing. The guard looks like he’s trying to conceal a laugh now. I walk up to him, slightly peeved, and ask, “Excuse me — is there a plaque that goes with that piece?” He begins to actually laugh now, a small, almost-squeak through which he says in a thick Asian accent... “No. This not art. This for sitting.” OK, so maybe I don’t get it. Or maybe funky-looking stools ARE art. But whether I get it or not, I’m here to report. I’ve heard there are some Salvador Dali works on this floor. I slink off to find them. Meanwhile, well-dressed people continue to file into this prestigious Agora Financial Reserve members-only event. It’s an evening of gaming, hors d’oeuvres and fine drink among the works of some of the world’s most famous surrealists: Dali, Ernst, Man Ray, Brassai, and others... Before long, the blackjack tables are filling up, the poker has commenced in earnest, the money wheel is clacking with regularity, and spirits seem high all around. But even though I love to gamble, and I really should be out mingling and gathering quotes from Reservists about the Symposium — and all the successful investments they’ve nailed down with Agora Financial’s help... I’m venturing deeper and deeper into the rabbit-hole acid trip of surrealism. Though we’ve already established that I’m no art critic, there’s something about this particular genre of art that’s attracting me. And as I walk pensively among the bird-headed men and bent spoons and truncated pornographic torsos and grotesque hodge-podges of disparate objects combined into single pieces that seem like the aborted fetuses of bad dreams, I figure out exactly what it is... Surrealism is the perfect metaphor for the era we’re living in. Alternately absurd and disturbing, like the government. Nonsensical, yet un-ignorable, like the markets. Frivolous, destructive, and pointless, like the myriad of laws and regulation that hold us back from success and achievement. Bent, stretched, and distorted almost beyond recognition, like the Constitution. Surrealism is nightmarish — like many western-world economies, especially the United States. I thought I already knew how bad that dream was... Then I came to the 2011 Agora Financial Investment Symposium. Folks, as odd as it sounds for a bleeds-red-white-and-and-blue American like me to say, I believe this year’s Fight or Flight event will radically change the way you think about the future viability of the U.S. of A. Over the last few days, I’ve tried to give you some insights into the opportunities for wealth that accompany these surreal times. I’ve also attempted to give you a snapshot of where The West is right now — both the bad and good — straight from the minds and mouths of those who know. But now, on the final day of the 2011 Symposium, it occurs to me that it’s all bad. We shouldn’t need to ponder having to fight to save classical capitalism in the western world. It should be thriving here, as it now is in the East... Nor should we have to ponder ways of building our wealth offshore, and maybe even expatriating ourselves, too... However, we must. That’s why the information, recommendations, and specific picks revealed at this year’s Symposium is doubly important — and why it’s vital to your wealth that you get this info (more on how to do this in a moment)... And that you grapple with this difficult “fight or flight” question NOW. To help you do just that, let me briefly summarize some of the seminars from the blockbuster final day of the 2011 Agora Financial Investment Symposium: BRENT COOK As a breather to the crushing weight of the implications of today’s economic realities I’ve been confronted with over the past few days, it’s nice to hear from a good ol’ fashioned rock hound... Brent Cook’s a 30-year veteran geologist, long-time advisor to funds and institutions on matters metamorphic, and the author of the successful Exploration Insights newsletter on select mining investment opportunities. In a nutshell, Brent’s saying that the longest bull run in history (basically, from now ‘til the end of time) is beginning right now, in metals. “Metal supply, as a function of time, can no longer keep up with metal demand...” says the soft-spoken, silver haired rock jock. “...It is not physically possible to bring new mines into production as fast as we’re using up metals.” Think about that for a minute... It seems intuitive in this age of scarcity, but it’s really quite unique. When have you seen or heard of an analyst call the precise “reversal point” in a major commodity class before? The exact moment when global demand for a specific thing eclipses the world’s ability to produce the desired quantities of it? It’s novel to my ears. And if what Brent’s saying is true (and he’s one of the most seasoned and connected geologists on the planet), that means only one thing... The metals he’s talking about are only going to get more expensive as time goes on. It’s simple supply and demand. Econ 101. Why is this “reversal point” happening right now? There’s a bottleneck in the production mechanism for metals mining. According to Cook, there are around 400 metals mining projects in the world right now where enough data has been gathering to determine economically viability to a certain degree of confidence. But because of limitations in engineering, equipment, parts, manpower, and other real-world concerns, a maximum of 20 of these can be brought online in any given year. Take copper, as an example... “The growth rate of copper production is about .9% per year,” Cook explains, directing us to just one of his many detailed charts. “Yet demand growth is about 4%, so we’re falling behind.” It’s not just copper, either... Gold and silver are in a similar pickle. And it’s not only supplies that are dwindling — it’s also the quality of the minerals being extracted. Take gold, for example. On paper, gold mining seems to keep pace with demand, as has even seemingly increased in just the last year or so... But that’s NOT due to new discoveries coming online, according to Cook. It’s because a lot of gold mines are extracting far lower-grad ore. “The average grade of product coming out of gold mines has dropped 25% in the last few years,” Brent adds. Again, this portends well for the gold and metals bulls... The best part is that right now, Cook says, three particular junior mining firms are in prime position to become major players is this coming “ever-boom” in metals. Again, I can’t mention them by name here (so many people could be reading or forwarding this that it could balloon their share prices) — but you can get all the details on them in your CD/MP3 Symposium recordings... They’re available right now, at a significant discount, below. KEITH FITZ-GERALD Not a lot of people really think about the macro ebbs and flows of capital around and across the world... Yet so much of what impacts our lives in America today is influenced by these tsunamis of cash. How much we pay for things. How much (or little) our money’s worth. Where we’ll fit in the future pecking order for resources and raw materials. “Money, I believe, is like water,” says the globe-trotting Fitz-Gerald, a respected trading veteran and Chief Investment Strategist at the Baltimore-based Money Map Press. “It’s going to flow out of one part of the world, and into another...” According to Keith, money goes where it’s treated best. And right now, the world’s money looks like it’s treating investors best in the East. Looking at the 10 largest economies in 2,000, roughly half of the world’s GDP rested with four nations: The U.S., Germany, Japan, and the U.K. — with Asian nations comprising 25% of global economic production... In 2010, Asia accounted for better than 30% of world GDP, largely at the expense of the U.S., whose share of the global marketplace declined 17%... But Keith’s projections of 2015 show the Asian nations accounting for 39% of the world’s economic footprint — again, much of this increase coming at the expense of North America, but also Europe. That’s a 56% swing in favor of Asia over just 15 years. Explained in these terms, it’s easy to see just how big this mammoth West-to-East flow of money really is. To me — and others in the audience whose gasps are audible at the comparative state western economies are in — Keith’s charts documenting this “money migration” are more than alarming... Fitz-Gerald remains upbeat, however. “Despite what’s happening around the world today, I’ve never seen as much opportunity as I see now,” he proclaims. “There is a $300 trillion recovery building. Admittedly, it’s very hard to see... But it’s out there.” And his three recommendations for playing it, starting right now, seem pretty sound... Yes, they’ll be in your copies of this year’s Symposium recordings — available in CD or MP3 format. Details on how to get them are coming shortly. But before I give you those, let me fill you in on an exciting NEW Symposium feature — something that’s never been done before in it’s 12-year history... FIRST EVER RESOURCE INVESTING “DEBATE” You know what happens when seven of the world’s foremost experts all basically agree about the future of commodities, resources, and energy? I do. You learn five times as much when they build on each other’s points as you would if they were divided into battling camps, or each defending a different point of view... And I’m here to tell you: I learned a TON from the combined 125 years or more of commodities experience and expertise on display at this, the first-ever Symposium resource investing “debate.” You will, too, when you hear all the action for yourself in your Symposium recordings. On the stage with moderator (and resource investing legend) Rick Rule were the aforementioned geologist Brent Cook, AF’s own energy and commodity stalwarts Byron King and Alan Knuckman, renowned oil man Marcio Mello of HRT Oil and Gas, Sprott’s CEO David Franklin, and Matt Badiali of Stansberry & Associates. Much like the Whiskey Bar event, this dialogue was sprinkled with crackling dialogue and good-natured jabs, especially between rapier-witted Rule and Mello... But unlike the Bar, this panel offered more or less a consensus of what’s ahead, and loads of solid, useful, even revelatory information on why the world commodity situation is the way it is — and what could happen on the road ahead that could derail investors. Opinion varied as to whether we are in the beginning or middle stages, but all of the panelists agreed that the world is in what Rule calls a “commodities super-cycle” of increasing demand... The most interesting part, in my opinion, was what these seven resource wizards said about things that could stall or slow such a global resources boom — and spell disaster for speculators. “I was born and raised during the Cold War,” says King. “When half the world was... politically and economically uninhabitable.” “Now we are seeing massive growth in those former, shall we say, true ‘red’ states,” Byron adds. “And what’s going off limits now is the developed world.” Elaborating, Byron explains how it’s now nearly impossible to develop energy resources in much of North America... “We don’t build this stuff in the United States anymore,” he laments, head shaking. Metals guru Cook sees another potential monkey wrench in the works — one I’d agree with whole-heartedly, even though it was intended to be tongue-in-cheek... “In terms of precious metals,” the silver-haired geologist says, “The only thing I could see changing what’s happening... would be if the U.S. government — and the rest of the governments — become fiscally responsible.” That got a big laugh, although it’s 100% true. What makes it funny is that everyone knows that alchemy will be perfected before western nations become financially responsible. As always seems to be the case, I don’t have anywhere near enough space to do this dialogue justice — to touch on all the event’s great insights and hard-won lessons about trading in resources and commodities... I could literally write a book by fleshing out the revelations these seven experts spilled in just this 50-minute panel debate. But I haven’t got a book. All I’ve got is this small space, and a looming deadline. One thing I can promise you, though: If you’re into resources and commodities (and every investor should be, in my opinion), this one event alone is worth the chump change you’ll spend on your CD/MP3 recordings of this year’s Symposium. And speaking of things being well worth the money, here’s a man whose words are always worth far more than the purchase price... Of a Mercedes! (The One and Only) BILL BONNER It’s almost impossible that you could be reading this and not know who the inimitable Bill Bonner is... He’s the visionary entrepreneur behind the Agora family of companies, a leader of libertarian political thought, a forty-year veteran critic of western fiscal policy — and without doubt the best speaker and communicator I’ve ever seen. That includes presidents, statesmen, commentators, actors, and car salesmen, too. He’s like the Mark Twain of contrarian capitalism. And today, as always, he’s got a point to make... “My point is that we’re still in a ‘great correction,’” Bonner says in his smooth, almost stentorian voice. “And what we don’t know is exactly what is going to be corrected.” That got some laughs... But what he cuts loose with next is perhaps the most frightening thing anyone in the room has heard all week. The reason it’s so frightening is because if history’s any kind of proof, when Bonner say something, it happens... “You can forget about recovery,” says Bill. “There IS no recovery — and there’s not going to be any recovery. Recovery is an impossibility.” That didn’t get any laughs at all. And you could almost hear the crying when Bill proved it with parallels and statistics from antiquity, more recent history, and the U.S. since World War II. How much has the average income of a college-educated person gone up in the last 40 years? — Bonner asks the standing-room-only crowd... “Zero,” he answers. Despite huge, orders-of-magnitude increases in college tuitions. Worse yet for the middle class: How much has the average American’s disposable income gone up in 40 years? Again, zero. Why? Because we’re inflating our money supply so we can buy more and more imported stuff — while slowly gutting our own manufacturing abilities... Thus increasing jobs and disposable incomes in other parts of the world, instead of at home. “Every time we get a stimulus program in the U.S., jobs increase in China,” Bill explains. Piling onto this point, he reminds us of this nightmare statistic: “Since 2000, there are 30 million fewer payroll jobs in America. And the number of people who are not in the labor force is at an all-time high.” As if this isn’t bad enough, Bonner lays out a stunning case for why Europe is in BETTER shape than the U.S., by far — and will be, moving forward. It all comes down to the one word Bill’s been shouting for years: Empire. I’d elaborate for you, but as always, I’m bumping up against deadline and space restraints here. Besides, I haven’t the ability or the arrogance to try and summarize one of the world’s greatest thinkers... You’ve simply got to hear him for yourself — if you’ve got the guts to handle it. I’m not exaggerating; this ugly truth is hard to listen to. No matter how dedicated you may be to fighting for a better America... What Bonner says about the future of this nation will make you want to seriously ponder the same thing I am right now: Flight. Bottom line: It’s time, right now, for you to make what may be the biggest decision of your fiscal life. Me, too. America or is bust I’ll confess something personal to you... Since 2007 — when I went on a 17-day dangerous game safari in Zimbabwe — I’ve dreamed of moving to South Africa, getting my PH (Professional Hunter) license, and starting a safari outfit for U.S. and international clients. But before the beginning of the 2011 Agora Financial Investment Symposium, I figured this would be a dumb move. I thought I’d be leaving too much opportunity and prosperity behind to chase a dream that in 10 years, I’d be too old to keep up with anyway. Right now, though — after hearing from Bonner, von Greyerz, Wiggin, Casey and others — I’m basically ready to sell everything but the guns and start packing. And not just because I’m now certain that America’s an Empire in decline... But also because hearing from folks like Johnston, Clayton, Fitz-Gerald, Mello, and more has opened my eyes about the enormous money I could make outside the U.S. This is new territory for me — I’m normally an “America or bust” kind of guy... But now that the “bust” part is looking like a certainty, I’m all of a sudden imagining what might be possible for me in a world that’s not Star Spangled. Talking in just a fraction of this event was enough to radically change my thinking about the future. And remember: Because of time and space constraints, I didn’t even get to tell you about all of the speakers I saw... Like Mike West, PhD, on the pioneering quantum-leap developments being made in stem cell and molecular medicine — especially in the realm of anti-aging. If what Mike says comes to pass, we’ll soon be able to make truckloads of replacement body parts made of real human tissue. He also revealed what may be the very best company to invest in to rake in the most money from this trend: His. Or Protext CEO and market veteran Peter Charles, who showed us the lucrative plays waiting right around the corner in the personal electronics world — as one mammoth technology shift changes everything, and may even kill the personal computer. Think one word: Mobile. Or the priceless Barry Ritholtz, the veteran, hyper-successful trader whose presentations showed me more of the realities of trading (and the Wall Street “whorehouse”) than any other speaker I’ve ever seen — along with chuckle after guffaw after belly-laugh as only New-York-to-the-marrow Ritholtz can deliver. And that’s not to mention the NINE other main seminars I wasn’t able to attend... Or the 48 afternoon “breakout” sessions — where the vast majority of specific “fight or flight” investment plays were revealed! As you can see, my coverage of this event, as exhausting as it has been for me, was far from exhaustive. But like I’ve been saying all along — you can get ALL the information and picks from the 2011 Agora Financial Investment Symposium for as little as $99... All you need to do is grab a copy of our CD and/or MP3 recordings of the event — available for just 24 more hours at a 33% discount! For one last time, here’s the deal: Order before midnight tomorrow night and you’ll get digital, downloadable MP3 recordings of the 2011 Symposium for only $99... Or, if you prefer a boxed set of these recording on CDs (I do), they’re just $149... But there’s one more option: You can get our dual-media pack of MP3 digital and hard copy CDs for THE SAME $149 price as the CD recordings alone. (CLICK HERE TO SELECT FROM THESE OPTIONS NOW) And don’t forget — whichever ordering option you choose includes the complete report of all the specific investment recommendations revealed by our speakers and Editors in their intensive afternoon breakout sessions. If you’re a concerned American like me — and trying to decide between “fight” or “flight” — you’ll NEED all of this information to study, act on, and keep for reference. Believe me: Whichever camp you ultimately decide you fall into once you’ve seen everything I have this week, and more... Action of one type or another is definitely called for. And I mean right now. Surreally Yours, Jim Amrhein Roving Reporter P.S. It has been a great joy to once more be getting the chance to speak directly to you, Agorans. And I hope I’ve been able to help you realize that right now, inaction spells financial disaster. But to get the whole picture — so you can decide on the best course of action (as in “fight” or “flight”) — take the first step and get your Symposium MP3s or CDs now. There’s no reason to wait. In fact, with only 24 hours left to get them at 33% off, there’s a good reason not to wait... CLICK HERE TO GET THEM NOW The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. In short, The Daily Reckoning shows how to live well even in uncertain times. We sent this e-mail to IGNOBLE.EXPERIMENT@arconati.us because you or someone using your e-mail address subscribed to this service. 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