 | | | 4 Ways To Find True Turnaround Stocks
By Tracey Ryniec, Zacks' Value Stock Strategist
August 26, 2013
It's the dream of every investor to find a stock that is down on its luck and ride it higher to riches.
These are the turnaround stories: companies that for whatever reason have struggled but are finding a way to get their groove back.
Who doesn't wish they had bought Amazon.com at $6 a share in 2002 after the dot-com meltdown when many tech stocks were left for dead? It is now trading near $285 a share.
Yet for every Amazon.com there is a Webvan or a Toys.com.
Who?
That's exactly the point. It's hard to pick out the true turnaround stocks.
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Webvan and Toys.com were also Web-based retailers that expanded rapidly in the 1990s. Webvan delivered groceries to homes, much like PeaPod does today. Toys.com tried to do the same with toys by selling toys at lower costs than brick-and-mortar stores.
Neither one succeeded. Webvan and Toys.com no longer exist. Those investors were left holding the bag.
How Do You Separate the Stars from the Duds?
It's obviously not always easy to invest in the companies that are truly turning around instead of those that are going nowhere.
If it were easy, we'd all be in them.
Thankfully, there are some clues to look out for that will help you find more of these dream turnaround stocks. Here are four to consider:
1) It's All About the Good News
The first instinct many have when thinking about a turnaround stock is that something must be wrong with it. There must be some kind of bad news associated with the company for it to be trading at a discount. Right?
The true turnaround stocks will have a clear, positive, fundamental change taking place that tells you it's safe to get on board. Perhaps it's a new management team, product or sales approach that has caused the improvement in the company's earnings trajectory.
Whatever the case, be on the lookout for this good news that acts as a catalyst for earnings estimates to move higher -- and that will lead to a significantly higher share price over time.
2) Stocks Trading Under $10 = Turnaround?
Lots of investors think that a stock in the single digits is somehow cheap and will rebound faster. So it must be a turnaround stock if it's under $10, right? The answer is WRONG far too often.
A low share price does not automatically mean a company is a turnaround candidate. Webvan and Toys.com both traded in the single digits before going out of business.
Don't get sucked in by a single-digit share price. Your dream turnaround could be trading at $20 or even $200 a share. The key is that the current price is low compared with where it will be in the months ahead.
3) Buy the Company, Not the Sector
How many times have you been asked over the years: "are you in tech stocks?"
Tech stocks have been hot for the last decade. In the 1990s it was dot-coms and drug stocks. In the next decade it will be something else.
Don't get fooled into thinking that entire sectors are "good" or "bad." Technology, for instance, usually means a vast universe of different businesses, from semiconductors to software developers to anti-virus companies and social media empires. The semiconductors could be struggling even as the social media companies are on fire.
Conversely, just because a sector is "hot" doesn't mean that there isn't a company within it that is finally turning it around -- just possibly later than its peers.
Be sure you look at the individual merits of a company. A big turnaround stock can just as easily be found in a red-hot sector as one that is currently out of favor.
4) Use the Zacks Rank
Our research team has long noted that true turnarounds can be detected when estimates of a company's earnings suddenly reverse from downward to upward. It's a very good sign when stocks leapfrog from lowly Zacks Rank #5s and #4s all the way to Zacks #1 Ranked Strong Buys. Since 1986, our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system has nearly tripled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +26% per year. That performance is fully documented and independently verified by Baker Tilly, an independent accounting firm.
Shortcut to True Turnarounds
If you want an easy way to keep tabs on the few turnarounds you can trust, and a more effective way to take advantage of the Zacks Rank, I invite you to take a look at my alert service, Turnaround Trader that follows exciting turnaround stocks with strong valuation and growth factors. But an even better way to stay abreast of the latest turnaround stocks -- plus all of Zacks' private buy and sell recommendations -- is by looking into our Zacks Ultimate trial.
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Tracey Ryniec
Tracey is Zacks' Value Stock Strategist and is also Editor in Charge of our Turnaround Trader and Value Investor stock recommendation portfolios.
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Tracey Ryniec is a Zacks Equity Strategist. She manages the Turnaround Trader and Insider Trader trading services and, for two years, previously managed the market-beating Value Trader trading service.
Prior to joining Zacks, she litigated complex securities and insurance cases representing tech titans and Fortune 100 companies in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
Having lived in the Bay Area during the dot-com boom, Tracey quickly realized she was more interested in stocks and the stock market than in actually litigating her cases, and she made a career-changing move.
Tracey graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in history. She attended Princeton University where she studied in the Near Eastern studies department before graduating with a master's in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Chicago. Tracey also holds a juris doctorate from the University of Pennsylvania.
She can now be found happily covering value stocks for Zacks.com in Chicago, in addition to running her trading service portfolios. | | | | | | | |
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