It's a pretty common theme that one's perception of a bad situation tends to be much worse than the actual result. I think it's pretty much human nature. I have noticed over the years observing successful traders and happy people in general there exists a common thread: they see the world for what it is, not what they hope it should be, not what they think it should be and not what they fear it could be. That doesn't mean that there are not risks in the world or that everything is always groovy, but things happen, good and bad and people and the world moves on. I was thinking about this in the context of a Greek exit (the Grexit…oooh). You would think that if the Grexit occurs the world would come to an end. It will not. From Marketwatch's Deputy Markets Editor Willam Watts:
"…More than 70 countries and territories have exited currency unions since 1945, notes Slater. And he observes that when steep falls in output did occur, it was often the result of factors like civil war or a transition from a planned economy to a market economy."
Take a look at this graph:
I am not suggesting that a Grexit will not be a rocky process. It certainly will be, all I am saying is that there is a very good chance that once the initial shock of the exit becomes reality, the world will find its equilibrium. Adam Slater, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, drives home this point:
"If the Grexit is "reasonably well organized", it's possible Greece could see a much smaller initial hit. And history suggests there could be a rapid rebound after that initial drop.
There could be "a rapid rebound in activity after an initial drop, and the fact that monetary conditions in Greece are so tight currently supports this, as does the fact that Greek GDP has already slumped by 25% since 2010," which has left the country's economy operating "way below potential."
Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.
The market conditions have remained volatile, as we saw yet another wild swing during yesterday's session. With the markets dropping early on, we hit our bottom and reversed up immediately. With trading conditions remaining at a knee jerk status these days, we have seen some fast reversals...
I like holding the cards, or at least stacking the odds in my favor. Let me show you what I mean. I had a major technical long trigger Tuesday morning in Best Buy (BBY). Here's the chart:
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Keep a civil tongue.