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2015/11/10

2 Transportation Catalysts that Could Hand You Double-digit Gains

Rude Awakening
November 10, 2015
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2 Transportation Catalysts that Could Hand You Double-digit Gains

  • Buying the takeover rumors…
  • A double-edged sword
  • Plus: Where are my dividends?

Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg Guenthner

In a sea of red, one group of stocks is flashing green again.

And now takeover rumors in this sector are attracting a lot of investor attention. If you act now, you could quickly nab double-digit gains—no matter how the market acts over the next couple of weeks…

What stocks am I talking about? Railroads.

While the major averages drooped more than 1% yesterday, the U.S. Railroad Index chugged nearly 3% higher.

The catalyst? Rumors that Canadian Pacific Railway is in the early stages of taking over Norfolk Southern Corp. And let me tell you something—these railroad stocks desperately needed it. Investors have squashed the major railroad stocks to a pulp this year. Before the takeover rumors started flying, Norfolk Southern stock was down nearly 25% year-to-date.

The oil crash has been a double-edged sword for transportation stocks. While fuel costs are down, decreased activity in America's shale basins means trains are shipping less crude across the country. But thanks to Monday's pop and recent news, we could be seeing the beginnings of some tradeable bottoms in the rails…

Riding the Rails

Norfolk Southern Corp. rallied double digits to close out the trading day. CSX Corp even spiked 3% in sympathy of the takeover news. 

But aside from takeover chatter, even the news cycle is turning back in favor of the ailing rail stocks. You probably heard that the Obama administration finally deep-sixed the Keystone XL Pipeline after seven years of nonsensical review. But hey, screw pipelines! We toss our crude onto trains that may or may not occasionally derail in a fiery disaster.

Either way, the focus is back on the trains. Before all this nonsense was set in motion over the weekend, Forbes reminds us that the "big 4" U.S. railroad stocks-- CSX, Kansas City Southern, Union Pacific, and Norfolk Southern – were all down at least 25% on the year.

"But there's a reason Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway bought Burlington Northern a few years back. Railroads are durable businesses," Paul Karos, senior portfolio manager at Minneapolis' $4 billion Whitebox Advisors, told Forbes. "Barriers to entry are high, margins are expanding and the group should benefit if the U.S. stays out of recession."

During the first half of the year, transportation stocks couldn't catch a bid. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average chopped along near breakeven, its cousins over at the Dow Jones Transportation Average piled up double-digit losses by early July. Now's your chance to play a snapback rally in the transports as all of this train news comes to a head…

So be sure to hop on this gravy train today.

Sincerely,
Greg Guenthner

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]

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Rude Numbers

When to Buy... When to Sell
179

points fell from the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday. That's good enough for a 1% drop...

65%

of all stocks trading on major U.S. exchanges remain below their respective 200-day moving averages...

$44.24

buys a barrel of crude today. Oil has settled lower for four straight trading days...

$1,091

is where you'll find gold futures this morning. The yellow metal is trying its best to stay above water. It's up about $3 in early trading...

2,067

marks the spot for S&P futures before the morning bell. Stocks are once again looking at a red open today...


Rude Trends

When to Buy... When to Sell

"While this is compelling stuff, and I'm sure it will be a solid investment, FACEBOOK PAYS NO DIVIDENDS!" says a reader who accidentally leaned on his caps lock key. "Therefore, why own it?"

Nothing against your precious dividends—but when you're trading for short-term gains, dividends simply don't factor into the equation.

Here at the Rude, we're looking at an investing timeframe of weeks, not years. We find the strongest stocks on the market, ride the momentum bursts higher, then pocket the gains. Sure, we'll hop on some longer-term trades (and I think Facebook could conceivably plow higher for a long, long time). But we'll take gains along the way.

Since we initially hopped onboard our Facebook trade about six weeks ago, the stock is up about 13%. Consider these gains your dividend for jumping on this stock at the right time—and continue to repeat this process with our other trades until you are satisfied with the results…


Ignore At Your Own Peril

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